TD 10...Back Again

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gkrangers

#1481 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:20 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:what will they find?
They will only investigate IF there is evidence of a surface low....

If it doesn't look good when its time for recon, they won't go.
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#1482 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:22 am

Lets just say that IF the hurricane hunters go in there and IF they find this system has re-organized I will personally appologize to EVERYBODY for doubting them. I have no problem with that.

<RICKY>
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#1483 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:26 am

It's also possible that the wave center has been over the islands.

SST's in low 90's here...
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robjay

#1484 Postby robjay » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:32 am

Love it, 75 pages on this thing.
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#1485 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:36 am

robjay wrote:Love it, 75 pages on this thing.


We're aiming for 100 before it redevelops. :lol:
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#1486 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:37 am

NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics!!!!
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#1487 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:38 am

whats the record of pages for a system that never redeveloped?

<RICKY>
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#1488 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:40 am

Also, its not known if this is TD remants or another area.
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#1489 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:45 am

What will the interaction with the ULL do to this possible system? What are a factors in this and why is the NHC still watching this for this to develope?
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gkrangers

#1490 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:51 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:What will the interaction with the ULL do to this possible system? What are a factors in this and why is the NHC still watching this for this to develope?
ULL would shear the system in the upper levels, not allowing cold convective tops to form and organize.

The NHC is still watching it because its a tropical/wave disturbance approaching the US that won't give up and the model consensus is for development....
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#1491 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:52 am

While there may be a battle royale in the NHC over this, if something were to develop, I would have to think that it would get a new depression number and not be considered a continuation of 10.

As far as shear goes, it really has more to do with the upper level anti-cyclone over the southeast U.S. than the Upper Level Low. The forecast remains for it do die out, thereby leaving a favorable enviroment. Compare the 0h and 24 h 200-850 mb shear forecasts of the various models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Although, upon closer review of the water vapor loop, the shear currently affecting the system is coming from the uper level low, which was not forecast to continue moving west the way it has...
Last edited by clfenwi on Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1492 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:54 am

clfenwi wrote:While there may be a battle royale in the NHC over this, if something were to develop, I would have to think that it would get a new depression number and not be considered a continuation of 10.

As far as shear goes, it really has more to do with the upper level anti-cyclone over the southeast U.S. than the Upper Level Low. The forecast remains for it do die out, thereby leaving a favorable enviroment. Compare the 0h and 24 h 200-850 mb shear forecasts of the various models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


That is a very good point. If the shear really does lessen and this thing is then gonna be moving over some 88-89F waters in favorable conditions.

<RICKY>
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#1493 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:04 pm

Image

THIS IS WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT!!!!
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#1494 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:06 pm

Ok Sandy. I hear ya.

<RICKY>
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#1495 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:07 pm

Interesting ... what do they know we don't??
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#1496 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:09 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:Interesting ... what do they know we don't??
Ok, well they know ALOT more than we do ;) but weather conditions speaking..we have plenty of data. Upper level winds are forecast to become more favorable, and the wave is showing signs of rotation, and its keeping its convection. Not to mention the models jumping all over it for days now...

It still needs to be closely watched.
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#1497 Postby jabber » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:13 pm

From the 2:05 discussion:

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
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#1498 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:24 pm

Invest is back up on NRL site!
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#1499 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:28 pm

TS Zack wrote:Invest is back up on NRL site!


Invest for what?

<RICKY>
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#1500 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:40 pm

models are running again:

WHXX01 KWBC 221806
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 1800 050823 0600 050823 1800 050824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 73.0W 21.4N 74.5W 21.9N 76.1W 22.4N 77.8W
BAMM 21.0N 73.0W 21.5N 74.5W 22.1N 76.1W 22.7N 77.7W
A98E 21.0N 73.0W 21.3N 74.5W 21.7N 76.1W 22.3N 77.9W
LBAR 21.0N 73.0W 21.4N 74.4W 22.2N 76.1W 23.3N 78.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 1800 050825 1800 050826 1800 050827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 79.7W 23.6N 83.4W 23.2N 86.8W 22.8N 89.8W
BAMM 23.3N 79.3W 23.9N 82.2W 23.6N 84.8W 23.2N 87.2W
A98E 23.0N 80.0W 23.2N 85.4W 22.9N 90.9W 21.7N 94.9W
LBAR 24.5N 79.8W 26.4N 82.3W 26.6N 82.6W 27.8N 81.7W
SHIP 51KTS 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS
DSHP 51KTS 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 73.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


graphics are up: http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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