TD 10...Back Again

[Thunder44]

Same Ship Report at 12z:

MANE 12 21.5 -74.4 250 19.0 - - - 29.87

Location at 21.5N 74.4W reports WSW wind at 19kts. There's your closed surface circulation indicated!

You can see a map here where the ship is. It appears what ever LLC there is, it's on NW side of that convection:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like SE florida into the SE GOM then the panhandle..if you split the difference. Could be an intersting week-weekend.

wow that would be similar to Erin in 1995 except that she hit central FL instead of of south florida and then the panhandle. interesting.

<RICKY>

[Javlin]

Here you go Marilyn Dorvak #

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

[WeatherEmperor]

Same Ship Report at 12z:

MANE 12 21.5 -74.4 250 19.0 - - - 29.87

Location at 21.5N 74.4W reports WSW wind at 19kts. There's your closed surface circulation indicated!

so they did find WSW winds. But dont they need just a W wind not a WSW wind to close off a circulation or am I wrong?

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

Same Ship Report at 12z:

MANE 12 21.5 -74.4 250 19.0 - - - 29.87

Location at 21.5N 74.4W reports WSW wind at 19kts. There's your closed surface circulation indicated!

so they did find WSW winds. But dont they need just a W wind not a WSW wind to close off a circulation or am I wrong?

<RICKY>

You're not necesarly closing off a surface circulation, but it indicates you have more than a wave axis. The wind flow is generally out of the East or SE in waves. Also latest visible images indicated low-level turning there as well.

[Marilyn]

23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10

What does these numbers mean ??
Thks

25kt winds

Thank You

[HouTXmetro]

Why is the Bamm Models the Southern outlier? What is the trend with most models at this point?

[Marilyn]

Here you go Marilyn Dorvak #

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

Thks i printed it so i won't have to ask again...

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.6 74.5 290./ 7.0
6 21.8 75.3 286./ 7.9
12 22.4 75.3 4./ 6.1
18 23.1 75.8 322./ 8.0
24 23.8 76.2 330./ 8.2
30 24.6 77.0 319./10.8
36 25.2 77.3 332./ 6.7
42 25.7 77.7 320./ 5.9
48 26.2 78.2 315./ 7.0
54 26.6 78.6 312./ 5.7
60 26.9 79.0 299./ 4.2
66 26.9 79.4 268./ 3.4
72 26.9 79.9 277./ 4.1
78 27.1 80.3 292./ 3.9
84 27.0 80.9 265./ 5.9
90 26.9 81.7 261./ 6.4
96 26.8 82.4 259./ 7.0
102 26.9 83.0 280./ 5.5
108 27.3 83.1 356./ 4.2
114 27.6 83.8 297./ 7.1
120 28.1 84.6 296./ 8.8
126 28.5 85.3 300./ 7.5


6z GFDL.

[Stratosphere747]

Why is the Bamm Models the Southern outlier? What is the trend with most models at this point?

Depends on where it is initialized at HouTx....

Being that there is no center to actually fix, you can bet if there ever is one you will see changes in all the models.

Still looks like the trend out of most is to take it into the GOM, after that who knows...

[artist]

houtexmetro - read page 80 regarding the bamm's

[HouTXmetro]

Why is the Bamm Models the Southern outlier? What is the trend with most models at this point?

Depends on where it is initialized at HouTx....

Being that there is no center to actually fix, you can bet if there ever is one you will see changes in all the models.

Still looks like the trend out of most is to take it into the GOM, after that who knows...

Thanks, I just wondering if this is a threat to TX/LA area.

[Rainband]

It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.

[MWatkins]

Consensus guidance is pretty consistent with the global guidance we’ve seen lately…as well as the latest GFDL model. This system should be very close to SE Florida as a very slow mover between 60-84 hours…then get on a more wnwesterly heading beyond that time. Interesting the models were only initialized at 20 knots…

Code: Select all

AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,   0, 218N,  750W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  12, 229N,  760W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  24, 243N,  771W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  36, 254N,  780W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  48, 261N,  788W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  60, 263N,  795W 
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  72, 263N,  804W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  84, 263N,  814W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU,  96, 265N,  824W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU, 108, 270N,  834W
AL, 10, 2005082312, 03, CONU, 120, 277N,  842W


Step one is to see if the system gains a degree of latitude in the next 12 hours…this seems feasible as the center may be just a tad north of that estimate…going to be an interesting morning.

MW

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like this might be a candidate for a TS Jerry/Hurricane Erin-type scenario from (drum roll please) 1995 -- the season a lot of people have said 2005 could resemble. Not sure of the exact strength this thing may get to, nor its exact path. But a strong tropical storm crossing the FL peninsula on its way to the Gulf is entirely possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1995atl.gif

[Stormcenter]

It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.

Until this "whatever" is in the GOM it is no ones problem along GOM coastline. Now when and if it makes it into the GOM then it's becomes everyones problem along the GOM coastline. I would not put too much faith in the models at all this far out so to say it's an eastern GOM threat or any threat is really premature in my opinion.

[WeatherEmperor]

what is CONU? A global model of some sort?

<RICKY>

[Rainband]

It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.

Until this "whatever" is in the GOM it is no ones problem along GOM coastline. Now when and if it makes it into the GOM then it's becomes everyones problem along the GOM coastline. I would not put too much faith in the models at all this far out so to say it's an eastern GOM threat or any threat is really premature in my opinion.

I will eat my crow if need be. Just my opinion. I agree weatherboy.

[mvtrucking]

Uk Met 144 hr brings a low over the southern tip of Florida on Friday & Saturday and then into the central gulf Monday(With a 990 mb pressure)Click play.(Long way out though?)

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM

[storms in NC]

Question here. Is there any way is can be picked up by the front that is come off the coast now? I haven't heard any one talking about it or the high ridges