TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

Keep in mind that the GFDL posted there was initialized at 18Z. Its initialized position is similar to that of the other 18Z models.

if you look at the placement and time on the chart it was initalized at 2325 z or 1 hour before the other GFS models did. That is the newest gfdl, the old gfdl was the 1735 z and was further south and west.

Like I said a flip flop a septillion times is coming.

Ok...the GFDL is plotted several hours AFTER the model run time.

So...the 18z GFDL gets plotted around 2300z.

The 00z GFDL gets plotted around 0500z.

Etc...get it?

OK no need for the LARGE text. THANKS

? Looks normal sized to me.

[clfenwi]

On further review the feature just west of Long Island is tracking like a surface center and even has a small section of it visible on the south side of the LLC. Its motion and look is exactly like an established LLC tracking WNW. What were they talking about? There was no relocation.


To me it looks to be curving ever so slightly...

AFWA was talking 'center relocation' relative to their previous estimate, which was done at 2030Z and put the center at 23.3N 73.9W. If they didn't call it a center relocation (on their part), then they would be saying that the center moved at a 20 knot clip or so, which obviously isn't the case.

[djones65]

There are three main satellite observation agencies: AFGWC, TAFB, and SAB... TAFB is the Hurricane Research Division I believe although someone please correct me... SAB is the Satellite Applications Branch in Washington, D.C. and AFGWC is Air Force Global Weather Central. All three observe the tropical oceans (not just the Atlantic) and make satellite "fixes" to be used by their subscribers... These are subjective estimates using the Dvorak classification method. Their satellite fixes are made every hour around 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC.

The AFGWC fix posted earlier at 08/24/0015 UTC was simply that agency's satellite estimate position of TD #12 at that time. It is quite rare for all three agencies to have the same satellite fixes, obviously, especially for developing and disorganized systems such as this. When they stated they "relocated the center to the west" they meant from their satellite fix at 1800 UTC earlier this afternoon. The NHC forecaster uses fix positions from all agencies including their own estimates before issuing its "official" position estimate for advisories.

So all that statement about relocation was meant for the GWC forecasters who were fixing it earlier today, not for NHC.

Lastly, when deciphering the Dvorak codes... the first set of numbers is the "current intensity number," and the second set behind the backslash is the "final t-number." Sometimes the current intensity number can be higher or lower than the final t-number based on intensity trends such as weakening or strengthening... However, the final t-number has very strict rules based on how high it can go during the first 24 hours. Therefore, many system's have lower t-numbers when developing rapidly than is perhaps actually present.

[Jim Cantore]

May I ask if somebody can post some links to sites I can view these computer models?

[chadtm80]

model maps on homepage http://www.storm2k.org

[djones65]

Floyd,

This is the link to the Satellite Services Division of the Satellite Applications Branch, or SAB (I believe)... If I am wrong someone please correct me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
this link will show the T-numbers for all tropical cyclones around the globe.
Hope this helps...

[Sanibel]

A small convection dot just formed near the Cuban portion. It hooks towards the Cuban portion, not the Long Island center???

[Jim Cantore]

thanks guys

[clfenwi]

(snip)
Lastly, when deciphering the Dvorak codes... the first set of numbers is the "current intensity number," and the second set behind the backslash is the "final t-number." Sometimes the current intensity number can be higher or lower than the final t-number based on intensity trends such as weakening or strengthening... However, the final t-number has very strict rules based on how high it can go during the first 24 hours. Therefore, many system's have lower t-numbers when developing rapidly than is perhaps actually present.

Got it backwards... first number is the final t-number (from satellite estimate), and the second is the current intensity number.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

[HURAKAN]

Are my eyes or is really TD 12 not moving?

[cjrciadt]

Are my eyes or is really TD 12 not moving?

Barely maybe less than 5mph NNW, according to the past few hours.http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxIRSatellite.html

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early3.png">

[Jim Cantore]

This thing is moving but it aint in a hurry maybe it's a decndent of Frances

[Scorpion]

I can tell you right now if the NHC is correct about intensity then this would cause a similar effect as Frances in this area since Frances was a prolonged minimal hurricane here and this could be the same.

[artist]

let's hope not...

[hicksta]

CLP5 FOR THE WIN!!!!!!!

[ROCK]

A small convection dot just formed near the Cuban portion. It hooks towards the Cuban portion, not the Long Island center???

not picking sides (because honestly I can't see a center) but I would have to agree with you on this one......Mid level vortex closer to cuba?? possibly....dont really know....

dont you just hate TS's in there infancy.....terrible two's all over again...

[spinfan4eva]

CLP5 FOR THE WIN!!!!!!!

Nothing wrong with LBAR either, Just a scare for the E Coast then its goin fishin

[Sanibel]

The north center west of Long Island is taking over now. The vortecies by Cuba were swirls associated with the strong upper features near the storm - and probably enhanced by being in Cuba's wind shadow...

[Rainband]

eastern shift has begun