Hurricane Katrina

[superfly]

Definitely a secondary wind maxima has formed. PLEASE WEAKEN.

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 04
Time: 02:36:10Z
Latitude: 27.6°N
Longitude: 89.4°W
Location: 119 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2289 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (35°) @ 141 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 17 mi NW (306°)
Sea level pressure: 908 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 55°F at 9902 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 77°F at 9915 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 63°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 35 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.03 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NW QUAD 02:31:40 Z

[Bolebuns]

give it up, we ain't buying your sack of BS...you look at this WV loop and show me the all the dry air and shear....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

the last few frames show the purple is almost surrounding the eye again, and could actually gain more strength prior to landfall.

Relax. You are both right...sort of.

That is, even the weather channel was suggesting that it wasn't quite as well organized, and that there is some possible sheer on the horizon. BUT, TPA is right, it is looking better in the last few frames, and the sheer being wished for is stiill a way off. This is very dangerous, as this storm could still bomb before landfall as easy as it could weaken. Just treat it like the worst case and be safe.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like right on time for your normal Major hurricane weaken over the northern Gulf. Theres a reason that Camille is the one in only.

[CronkPSU]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 04
Time: 02:36:10Z
Latitude: 27.6°N
Longitude: 89.4°W
Location: 119 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2289 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (35°) @ 141 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 17 mi NW (306°)
Sea level pressure: 908 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 55°F at 9902 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 77°F at 9915 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 63°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 35 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.03 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NW QUAD 02:31:40 Z

[Mello1]

WWLTV met said that it's starting to go thru ERC. That may be what is happening...

[storms in NC]

maybe it will get its act together before landfall... but seeing the sheer coming from the west, and reading the NHC discussion lends me to think the weakening will continue.

WOW... 5 whole knots.

Brent please don't respon to them. Only get you in trouble and I think you are very good.

[CronkPSU]

WWLTV met said that it's starting to go thru ERC. That may be what is happening...

certainly hope not, seems like there is still enough time for it to bomb out

[Brent]

Oh yeah... 908 mb... a lot of weakening.

[swimaster20]

Looks like right on time for your normal Major hurricane weaken over the northern Gulf. Theres a reason that Camille is the one in only.

I wouldn't speak so soon.

[JtSmarts]

Max Mayfield just commented on CNN that an ERC was likely starting.

[Thunder44]

Recon still isn't reporting these double or concentric eyewalls that TPC were talking about in their discussion. I question really if the rise in pressure is a result of an ERC.

[Foladar]

Looks like right on time for your normal Major hurricane weaken over the northern Gulf. Theres a reason that Camille is the one in only.

There's still plenty of time, a good 100 miles from land ..

[Solaris]

even in category 3 intensity it would be a very dangerous storm just because of the largeness and the slow-moving.

[mtm4319]

[Brent]

even in category 3 intensity it would be a very dangerous storm just because of the largeness and the slow-moving.

It's not going down to a 3...

Cat 4 is the best we can hope for... 908 mb is still REALLY REALLY REALLY low for anything other than a solid Cat 5.

[senorpepr]

[Solaris]

how much will the nighttime have an effect? limited room for strengthening?

[nystate]

Good luck everyone!

And as long as everyone is throwing out numbers, here is my official landfall prediction- 140 mph. Just a wild guess, so take it for what it is worth (nothing!).

NOLA will take some damage, but it will be fine IMHO. Give it a month or two to recover, but it will still be the same city come Thanksgiving.

[ROCK]

even in category 3 intensity it would be a very dangerous storm just because of the largeness and the slow-moving.

It's not going down to a 3...

Cat 4 is the best we can hope for... 908 mb is still REALLY REALLY REALLY low for anything other than a solid Cat 5.

I agree...if in fact shes going through an ERC I dont think 8 hours is enough to complete it and re-intensify...."re-intensify" have to catch myself....a high end Cat 4 is plenty bad enough for these people as it is...