Run is out to 144 hours now ... looks like a hurricane at about 17N 56W or so. Weakness ahead at the lower levels, but still quite good mid-level ridging over it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_144.shtml
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look at this loop, convection seems to have died off, and is the axis is near 10N.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
sorry forgot link
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
sorry forgot link
Last edited by dwg71 on Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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x-y-no
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Steve H. wrote:If I were you i'd be a leeetle bit more concerned about the area east of the Bahamas, that will develop, cross FL into the GOM. It is currently fired convection, but it will have to wait until the ridge builds in for the shear to relax. IMO the models are underdoing the potential here.
I'm not yet convinced that crosses into the GOM - both the Euro and the NOGAPS keep it east of Florida, and that looks plausible to me. Also, even if the GFS idea verifies, I'm not convinced conditions are right for development in the Gulf in that timeframe.
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x-y-no
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Finally ... at 216 hours it breaks down the ridge to the north, after having the system pass uncomfortably close to PR and Hispaniola. May have it recurving before the EC after all ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_216.shtml
Thing that bothers me with this whole scenario, though, is that the GFS tends to have a rightward bias to tracks under a ridge. So we may be looking at a system getting into the Caribbean.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_216.shtml
Thing that bothers me with this whole scenario, though, is that the GFS tends to have a rightward bias to tracks under a ridge. So we may be looking at a system getting into the Caribbean.
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cycloneye
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x-y-no wrote:Finally ... at 216 hours it breaks down the ridge to the north, after having the system pass uncomfortably close to PR and Hispaniola. May have it recurving before the EC after all ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_216.shtml
Thing that bothers me with this whole scenario, though, is that the GFS tends to have a rightward bias to tracks under a ridge. So we may be looking at a system getting into the Caribbean.
If that verifies it will be too close for comfort here in Puerto Rico but more threatening to the northern Leewards.Let's see what the other 12z globals show.
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scostorms
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Canada is going to get hit? The last hurricane was hurricane Juan in 2003 http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/ . I still have no idea what you guys are talking about!
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.0N 29.6W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2005 8.0N 29.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2005 8.1N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2005 8.6N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2005 9.5N 36.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2005 10.5N 38.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2005 11.4N 41.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2005 13.1N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2005 13.8N 49.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2005 14.4N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2005 15.2N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2005 15.9N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2005 16.5N 62.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12z UKMET.
This run plows the system into the Leeward islands and threats Puerto Rico.
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye
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scostorms wrote:Ok, I cannot get a straight answer! Is this tropical depression 14 we are talking about, or a tropical wave? Or that new development...
This is about a system located in the Tropical Atlantic 92L invest almost midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles not about TD14.
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