Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

I'd say this evening so they can get in some decent 00Z runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

I'd say this evening so they can get in some decent 00Z runs.

that would be great. i would like to see some of the early thinking on this especially since its so close to home for me.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

94L is up at NRL.

[WeatherEmperor]

94L is up at NRL.

wow that was quick. how long before we get model plots?

<RICKY>

[StormWarning1]

NRL has Invest 94 up, just the header though, No information yet.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Models after 8:30 PM.

[jimvb]

Rockyman, you partially titled this "TWO possible TD". Does this mean that a Tropical Weather Outlook has made a disturbed area (1 such area) a possible Tropical Depression, or do you mean that there are 2 possible TDs out there? There may be 2 such TDs out there, as pointed out in CNN recently - one near the US coast and one east of the Bahamas.

Perhaps we should use the numeral 2 instead of "two" or "TWO" to represent the integer one higher than 1 to avoid confusing it with Tropical Weather Outlooks.

[Rainband]

Hopefully it doesn't amount to anything. Doesn't everyone think we have had enough this year. We get hit again and we might as well move to a third world country. Not saying anyone is -removed- but if they are Some reverse -removed- would be nice.

[Thunder44]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Models after 8:30 PM.

You click Lee, you get it, but then all I see is Software error!

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Models after 8:30 PM.

You click you get it, but then all I see is Software error!

Yes that site has been with problems lately.Try the backup site thunder but also there are problems.

[rockyman]

Rockyman, you partially titled this "TWO possible TD". Does this mean that a Tropical Weather Outlook has made a disturbed area (1 such area) a possible Tropical Depression, or do you mean that there are 2 possible TDs out there? There may be 2 such TDs out there, as pointed out in CNN recently - one near the US coast and one east of the Bahamas.

Perhaps we should use the numeral 2 instead of "two" or "TWO" to represent the integer one higher than 1 to avoid confusing it with Tropical Weather Outlooks.

Actually, Luis (cycloneye) is editing the titles...but his "TWO" refers to the Tropical Weather Outlook...this thread is only discussing the system over the western Bahamas (now 94L)...there is a separate thread for 93L well east of the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

rockyman as promised changed the title as 94 is up.Let's see how many pages this thread has.

[MiamiensisWx]

rockyman as promised changed the title as 94 is up.Let's see how many pages this thread has.

Currently, it is three pages long. No doubt it will get longer!

[rockyman]

rockyman as promised changed the title as 94 is up.Let's see how many pages this thread has.

Thanks, Luis! My notebook computer crashed (literally--the screen is broken) during the evacuation...so I had to get a new notebook...I'm still working on getting the bookmarks moved over to the new system...Once I do, I'll post a few links to steering currents, shear maps, etc.

[MiamiensisWx]

For everyone who's interested, I already have a topic for discussing the amount of shear in areas of the Atlantic Basin where you can post shear charts and discuss shear trends.

[WeatherEmperor]

rockyman as promised changed the title as 94 is up.Let's see how many pages this thread has.

Currently, it is three pages long. No doubt it will get longer!

oh absolutely. especially with a system that is right next door to us.

<RICKY>

[Canelaw99]

I'm looking forward to seeing what the models have to say about this one this evening, that's for sure.

[WeatherEmperor]

the model plots are out already I think. Check on this website and click in 94 Invest and you will see plots and graphic. Is that correct?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050904 1800 050905 0600 050905 1800 050906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 78.2W 26.4N 78.5W 27.4N 78.9W 28.8N 79.5W
BAMM 25.8N 78.2W 26.0N 78.5W 26.7N 79.0W 27.4N 79.8W
A98E 25.8N 78.2W 26.0N 78.2W 26.3N 78.3W 26.5N 79.3W
LBAR 25.8N 78.2W 26.0N 78.3W 26.9N 78.4W 28.1N 78.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050906 1800 050907 1800 050908 1800 050909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 80.3W 33.5N 81.5W 36.3N 79.4W 39.3N 69.3W
BAMM 28.3N 80.8W 30.1N 82.8W 31.5N 83.6W 32.4N 83.0W
A98E 26.8N 79.8W 26.4N 79.7W 27.0N 79.2W 27.7N 78.3W
LBAR 29.3N 78.5W 30.6N 77.8W 31.8N 76.6W 32.6N 73.3W
SHIP 51KTS 62KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 41KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 78.2W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Ok here are the first model plots for 94L.

[cycloneye]