Where's she gonna come onshore..?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

#21 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:30 pm

What I want: Out to sea!
What I think: Too close for my comfort!
0 likes   
Top
gpickett00
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:47 pm
Location: Satellite Beach Florida
Contact:
Contact gpickett00

#22 Postby gpickett00 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:59 pm

when do you all think that coastal counties will cancel school? I live in brevard county, kennedy space center area, so that is why I am interested.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#23 Postby jdray » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:11 pm

Coming ashore just south of St. Augustine.

70mph - maybe 80mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

#24 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:23 pm

I'm thinking the same as jdray, and then heading west but staying out of the GOM, spreading lots of rain along the coast of the GOM. Just my take on it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FlSteel
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Harrisburg NC

#25 Postby FlSteel » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:29 pm

It's still too early to tell but if I were to take a guess, I would be thinking from St. Augustine to Brunswick Ga right now. Rare for a storm to make landfall in this neck of the woods but like everyone has said so many times this year, you can not predict the tropics. History continues to be written. We have not been hit here in Jax in over 40 years, maybe out time is up. :(
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drudd1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 466
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:33 am
Location: Chuluota, FL
Contact:
Contact drudd1

#26 Postby drudd1 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 5:39 am

Wherever she wants, and she hasn't made her mind up yet.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 858
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Sopchoppy, FL

#27 Postby sweetpea » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:09 am

All of us here in NE Florida are in for a real crappy weekend. Just be prepared and stay safe. Debbie
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneGirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5839
Age: 60
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:45 am
Location: Clare, Michigan
Contact:
Contact HurricaneGirl

#28 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:19 am

Ormond Beach, Daytona area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#29 Postby fci » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:35 am

A brush of the Carolina coast on its way out to sea.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#30 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:40 am

My eyes make be playing tricks on me but on the latest radar loop of about 3 hrs. she seems to have a westward drift but the LLC is very hard to keep up with as it seems to reform often.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
digitaldahling
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 10:45 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Impact thinks it will weaken

#31 Postby digitaldahling » Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:02 am

while crossing northern Florida, re-enter the GOM and gradually intensify.

Those of us on the GOM are holding our collective breaths.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#32 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:15 am

im gonna say somewhere around daytona beach...maybe just south of there...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Skywatch_NC
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10949
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:31 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:
Contact Skywatch_NC

#33 Postby Skywatch_NC » Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:32 am

Looks as though the models have gone INsane...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Eric
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#34 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:40 am

Skywatch_NC wrote:Looks as though the models have gone INsane...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Eric


I don't guess the models are sure at this point where this thing is going. But I will say this. I don't like the GFDL solution (even though it was right-on with Katrina) because it puts this storm in the gulf in the direction of the mouth of the river.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
NastyCat4

#35 Postby NastyCat4 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:50 am

Less than 1% chance of a Daytona-Ormond-St.Aug Landfall if there is a landfall. It is around 29 N NOW, and is till on a NW heading--if it landfalls it would be closer to Jax/Ga border.
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#36 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:55 am

I cant be more then 5% sure on this but between Brunswick and St Augustine
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#37 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:59 am

tailgater wrote:My eyes make be playing tricks on me but on the latest radar loop of about 3 hrs. she seems to have a westward drift but the LLC is very hard to keep up with as it seems to reform often.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?


I've had the Melbourne radar on all morning, and best I can say is practically no motion. Maybe the tiniest bit of westward drift, but that's as likely to be an artifact of the center getting tighter as it is to be a genuine motion.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#38 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 07, 2005 12:01 pm

BTW, in answer to the original question, I'll say a bit south of Cape Canaveral, and moving slowly enough over the peninsula that it dissipates.

(that last may be wishful thinking)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cstrunk, Team Ghost and 91 guests