My Ophelia Perspective Pt. 3 Worried?

[Jim Hughes]

The following post is NOT an offical forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Ophelia has continued her crazy life style since the last time I gave an outllook this past Satruday night.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74097

Ophelia did strengthen overnight into Sunday morning like I thought she would and it occurred in the early part of my window time frame. The NHC's 5am discussion had her up to her highest wind speed yet of 85 mph..but things changed considerably as most people know from there on out and she has never looked the same since.

So what happende to her? Well I could not disagree with all the points made over the past few days in reference to the upwelling of cooler SST's nor the intrusion of dry. But like I have always said ..at least more with the latter...I have seen tropical systems both form and deteriorate under the same conditions so I would tend to look at some other possible factors also.....space weather

At the end of my last discussion I mentioned that a possible CME had just arrived and I also said that I was leaning towards a quiet time tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

I never did update the geomagnetic activity in the Gloal Forum because the contamination of some data during the first few days of the proton event has been terrible and a good deal of reliable data was unavailable. So I ended up going to bed around 1am. I unfortunately missed quite a geomagnetic storm and Aurora sightings were reported in quite a number of places.

http://www.spaceweather.com (Has 9/11 picture gallery of it)

The storm has subsided considerably from it's peak a couple of days ago but things are still quite active . You can see that here....the last graph...the red bars means that storm level activty is present. The higher the number (0-9) the more intense. The worst and most severe part of the storm occurred between 11/06-09z (kp 9)

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html

The geomagnetic activity has been very strong the past 72 hours...here are the hard numbers/data for three areas...mid & high latitudes and planetary. Look under the "A" for the daily total. I know they are probably meaningless to some but the stronger the value the more intense the storm.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt

Some of you might notice that the last real severe geomagnetic storm, on 8/24, happened just prior to Katrina. This is somewhat rare to have strong geomagnetic events like this so close together and weeks apart.... at this stage of the solar cycle...we're supposed to be winding down. You can see the rest of the activity numbers since July 1st here.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/2005Q3_DGD.txt


The increased in geomagnetic storming was not the only game in town. The arrival of these CME's raised the solar wind speed considerably. The ACE SWEPAM data was contaminated early on but it has been uncontaminated for most of the past 48 hours.

You can see at both these solar wind URL's ..SOHO...and ACE2... how much the solar winds had increased. The first is SOHO and it shows two graphs..the past three days and the past fourteen days. The solar wind speed is at the top of both charts ..The actual value of the solar wind speed is written on the left side.

You can see that the solar wind rose dramatically over the past few days and it had two strong peaks in the 1,000 km/sec range. (BTW A 1,000 km/sec solar wind speed peak has occurred only several times this cycle...Last nine years)

I believe this had a possible influence upon the disorganization of Orpheila.

http://UMTOF.umd.edu/pm


ACE2 data shows the hard numbers here. (Look below the bulk solar wind speed heading )

The data on the 8th & 9th, during the early part of the proton event , was contaminated. So disreagrd the laughable 200-300 km/sec wind speed.

You can see by mid day on the 11th...when the SWEPAM data came back, that the solar wind speed was still very high in the 900 plus range.

ACE2 also shows that another strong solar windshock occurred before mid day yesterday. So the solar wind speed again rose sharply.

I have spoken numerous times about the effect that a sharp rising solar wind speed can have on the tropics. Especially above the 500 km/sec level.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

Both the strong geomagnetic storming and solar wind speed , has had a dramtic effect upon the earth's electrical environment. These two parameters have an effect upon the level of GCR's (Galatic Cosmic Rays) reaching the earth.

I have previously spoken about some research papers regarding the possible GCR link with cloud formation etc...You can see here at the Oulu neutron moitor that we saw about a 12% reduction. If you change the second date to 9/14 and push submit, you can see that this is the largest decrease since last January... (Right before the big NE blizzard.)

httP://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

If there is an electrial feedback between the ionophere and these storms. Then it might be possible that events like the prior 72 hours can disrupt them. Especially if the standard meteorlogical conditions are not very good. This would only deteriorate them quicker in my opinion.

Here are a couple of other URL's that might interest some people regarding the above comments. I know I have given the second one out before before but maybe you missed it They indirectly deal with some of the recent events and give some credence to my theories. THEY ARE DIFFERENT and I know this.

"Effects of energetic Solar Proton events on the cyclone devlopment in the North Atlantic"

http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/sta ... Thejll.pdf


"Influence of Solar Wind on the Global Elctrical Circuit, and Inferred Effects On Cloud Microphysics, Temperature, and Dynamics in the Troposphere"

http://www.utdallas.edu/dept/physics/Fa ... in_rev.pdf


So what lies ahead for Ophelia in my opinion? The strong flaring/eruptions have leveled off during the past 36 hours but I do not think that this is that big of deal because there are plenty of energetic particles in the earth's electrical environment now and Region 808's quadrant location is also not as conducive as it was prior the recent Stanford Mean magnetic field change two days ago. (Another thing that I have talked about)

It will be conducive in about 2-3 days when it crosses over to the the SW quadrant. (Magnetic field vector related)

The big key now is the solar wind and IMF. The solar wind speed has been continually dropping the past 32 hours since the last CME arrival. Now we still could be on the receiving end of another CME but I tend to think we may be out of the woods....at least until another eruption occurs...then you would have to add the approximate travel time for it to get here.

Ophelia is expected to make landfall tomorrow some time from what I have been hearing so another CME should not matter either way.

The ACE2 , solar wind hourly average, just fell below the 700 km/sec level for the first time in three days and it's hovering around 660 km/sec. Any continual reduction in the solar wind speed will conducive in my opinion and this is why I believe Ophlia is looking healthier today and this worries me very much.

Storms in the higher latitudes of the Atlantic do not seem to mine the solar wind speed being above 500 km.sec like the lower latitudes or the GOM. The key is that it must be weakening and it is.

A calming of the intnesity of the geomagnetic activity and a more continual state of the IMF , like what a coronal windstream brings...consistency in solar wind components....would also enhance development in my opinion.

Both of these variables seem to be heading towards conducive enhancemtn in my opinion and this tell me some strengthening is defintely ahead. But how much?

Ophlia is forecasted to make lanfall tomorrow some time . I sincerely hope she does do this very soon and I hope does not stall again. Or continually move this slow.

I believe Ophelia will look much better in tomorrows imagery just like she is starting to today..... and we wiill see some upcoming strengthening between 14/18z-15/06z.

( I feel fairly confident that some will come beforehand . Remember I like to give out the prime times for intensification. So any prior strengthening will just make me worry more. )

Now I know very well that she will not strengthen over land so this forecast may end up being meaningless if you only look at the time period that I have mentioned.

This would NOT be a smart idea. The weakneing of the solar wind speed is VERY IMPORTANT...I am just putting all of the variables/delayed effects into a time frame gidleine....that's all.

Here's the bottom line. Ophelia will continue to become better organized...while having her bad moments but the horizon looks favorable for tropical devlopment...even if she makes landfall.

She will still have to come back over open waters and she may very well flare up dramtically again while moving away from the coast. I only hope she moves rapidly...or parts of the NE could get a much stronger storm then what is being anticipated.



Jim

[djtil]

wow. my brain hurts.

[Jim Hughes]

storm2k.org Disiclaimer above in original post...THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST


I just wanted to add something since I never gave out exact numbers...I would expect to see a 10 mph increase in Ophelia's wind speed between now and tomorrow's 5pm discussion/before landfall.

Any delayed landfall, after this time frame, would let her strengthen even more in my opinion because of what I consider to be primed strengthening phases. So 85-90 mph would not be out of the question.



Jim

[jasons2k]

I'm not trying to be a skeptic (I really don't have an opinion one way or the other.....yet)

But, there are other well established reasons for deepening, as cited in JB's free column today:

First of all, the deepening today, perhaps quite dramatic this afternoon and tonight, is based on the following ideas:

1.) The storm is over the warm Gulf stream over the the next 12-18 hours. Temperatures are around 4 degrees warmer here, and this is a large ramp up of available heat.

2.) The strong winds are pulling into the center with convection. This means we are going to accelerate the wind toward the center, so chances are, even with the pressure not lowering, the storm is a hurricane this afternoon.

3.) Should the convection finally wrap into the center, the resultant increase in upward motion would a.) get rid of what's left of the dry air, and b.) allow for pressure falls. By moistening the dry air, the pressure can fall even faster. This in turn allows the wind to rush in more quickly, and enhance convergence more. This is the feedback we talk about. So now it's a matter of seeing if all this actually comes out right.

[ishop]

Thanks for your input --very interesting and detailed.
Need some more coffee to injest this.

Ishop

[djtil]

Need some more coffee

dont forget to add the kahlua.....

[Rainband]

****Staff Warning***** Rude comments were deleted from this thread. There are Many different kinds of people with many different views here on S2K. We all don't have to agree, but we all do have to have respect for one another.

[WindRunner]

Wow. My head hurts, yet it made sense. Sounds like we will have a strengthening storm heading in to the coast, especially if she decides to hang back for one more dip in the ocean.

[NCWeatherChic]

Jim,

That was a very interesting read and I truly appreciate you posting it for everyone. I wanted to say I am certain many people wouldn't believe that what goes on outside of Earth does effect Earth and other planets. I can't see it wouldn't be possible for all of this to be related. It's like some people believe in spirits, some don't. Some people believe in Aliens while some don't. Just because they have never seen it with their own eyes, just don't believe it. I have seen spirits, lived in a "haunted house" as a kid (not for long though my parent's were even freaked out). I believe we can't possibly be the only "beings" that exist. But I am an opened minded person and believe that anything is possible. As long as those believers and non-believers and agree that they disagree. Thanks again for posting the info! Keep us informed of anything new going on.

[KATRINA]

this is the MOST annoying storm..and stubborn...just saw the WT and it stalled again! I''ve only been tracking them for the past 2 seasons but does this happen often? I'm no expert but why does this storm seem so different?

[NCWeatherChic]

Well Jim, let's hope that theory isn't correct. Because if it is and she is stationary again and her pressure has dropped some, then this will be interesting to say the least to see what will happen.
Angela

[Jim Hughes]

Well Jim, let's hope that theory isn't correct. Because if it is and she is stationary again and her pressure has dropped some, then this will be interesting to say the least to see what will happen.
Angela

Yes she has been getting her act together...pressure wise.

What's interesting from my point ..or frustrating from a forecasting standpoint ... is two more X-Class (big flares) have occurred since my post. These were not supposed to occur..at least not the proton rise part.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html

We have been talking about these events in the Global Forum. Proton levels have been steadily rising again but they are not at the levels that they were 2-3 days ago.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


All I know is Ophelia just got dealt a new hand a little while ago if there is an electrical connection between the earth's ionosphere and these storms. Back to the drawing board.



Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

sum it up Jim what's gonna happen

[Jim Hughes]

sum it up Jim what's gonna happen

Well at this point I would tend to stick with my original outlook. The proton levels may go down overnight anyway. They could be disruptive though. I have spoke about how they seem to put a cap on strong hurricanes but she is not that strong...getting late also...May sleep on it and look things over more closely in the morning.

It's not like she is going anywhere..right?


Jim

[jasons2k]

Question:

If this theory were to verify, wouldn't we also see a corresponding increase/decrease in convective activity on land as well?

[Jim Hughes]

Question:

If this theory were to verify, wouldn't we also see a corresponding increase/decrease in convective activity on land as well?

I have noticed plenty of relationships with space weather and land. It's going on seven years now ..when I first mentioned the correlation with coronal hole and storminess in the CONUS...coronal holes bring along increased solar winds and particles...

BTW yesterday we saw our highest lightening strike totals in the CONUS in at least a week ....maybe more ... I believe..... I am positve about the last 4-5 days. So the land responded also....Again most people want to look all over the world ...I do not. I have spoken about the possibility of the regional magnetic field tilt effect...our relationship to the north pole as being a factor.


Jim

[jasons2k]

Question:

If this theory were to verify, wouldn't we also see a corresponding increase/decrease in convective activity on land as well?

I have noticed plenty of relationships with space weather and land. It's going on seven years now ..when I first mentioned the correlation with coronal hole and storminess in the CONUS...coronal holes bring along increased solar winds and particles...

BTW yesterday we saw our highest lightening strike totals in the CONUS in at least a week ....maybe more ... I believe..... I am positve about the last 4-5 days. So the land responded also....Again most people want to look all over the world ...I do not. I have spoken about the possibility of the regional magnetic field tilt effect...our relationship to the north pole as being a factor.


Jim

Thanks Jim for the clarification.