Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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nequad
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#161 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:33 pm

042
WHXX04 KWBC 171729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.0 67.7 285./13.0
6 22.0 68.4 322./11.8
12 22.4 69.2 299./ 8.1
18 22.8 70.2 293./10.2
24 23.2 71.1 294./ 9.6
30 23.5 71.9 290./ 7.8
36 24.0 72.6 306./ 8.5
42 24.3 73.7 282./10.1
48 24.5 74.8 280./ 9.8
54 24.7 75.8 282./ 9.5
60 24.7 76.9 274./ 9.9
66 24.7 78.1 269./11.3
72 24.9 79.3 276./11.1
78 24.9 80.5 274./10.9
84 25.0 81.6 273./ 9.8
90 25.0 82.8 272./10.2
96 25.1 83.8 276./ 9.4
102 25.3 84.7 281./ 8.2
108 25.5 85.5 285./ 7.4
114 25.9 86.2 294./ 7.7
120 26.4 86.9 308./ 8.4
126 27.1 87.7 310./ 9.6
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WeatherEmperor
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#162 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:37 pm

if my math serves me correct, this latest GFDL run brings 96L closer to south florida.

<RICKY>
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#163 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:38 pm

GFDL updated. Consistent...
Image
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#164 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:GFDL updated. Consistent...
Image


:crazyeyes: :shocked!:
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#165 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

Oh my god
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Derek Ortt

#166 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

there appears to be a closed low forming near 67W
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#167 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:if my math serves me correct, this latest GFDL run brings 96L closer to south florida.

<RICKY>


Yes indeed.

Code: Select all

72 24.9 79.3 276./11.1
78 24.9 80.5 274./10.9
84 25.0 81.6 273./ 9.8


That's crossing the central Keys.
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#168 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

gfdl is to close to me...but im sticking with my northern gulf coast prediction
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#169 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:there appears to be a closed low forming near 67W


Derek, real quick. What are your very initial thoughts on the latest GFDL run for 96L??

<RICKY>
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#170 Postby CocoCreek » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:41 pm

Concerning to say the least as GFDL is definitely one of the more solid models...
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#171 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:41 pm

I'm really not liking that GFDL...this scenario setting up is looking all to familiar...going all the way back to last year with Frances...and for that matter, I'm not convinced that TD 17 is going to leave us alone either...I can't imagine there being that big of a weakness in the high to let 17 be a fish.
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#172 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:43 pm

RSMAS MM5 off of the Canadian also shows a hurricane, and that has been by far the best model available
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#173 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:RSMAS MM5 off of the Canadian also shows a hurricane, and that has been by far the best model available


where does it show this system first forming into a hurricane?

<RICKY>
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#174 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:45 pm

are you sure derek, it still looks weak to me
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#175 Postby jasons2k » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:47 pm

Now getting concerned Derek...esp. with GFDL doing what it's doing and GFS shifting ridge away from TX....where does your model take it?
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#176 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:48 pm

GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.
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#177 Postby cajungal » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:49 pm

Please let the GFDL be wrong. We can't take even a weak system over here. It makes me nervous even looking at it. I wonder what Bob Breck's VIPIR model will say when it actually develops. LOL. Just wanted to give you each a little laugh to ease the tension.
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#178 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:50 pm

Rainband wrote:GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.
.


GFDL was the first one to show td17 N now all are showing N. GFDL was the best one with Katrina. This season GFDL is the MVP
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#179 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:50 pm

ouch
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#180 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:51 pm

cajungal wrote:Please let the GFDL be wrong. We can't take even a weak system over here. It makes me nervous even looking at it. I wonder what Bob Breck's VIPIR model will say when it actually develops. LOL. Just wanted to give you each a little laugh to ease the tension.


we had a meteorology meeting at usa the other day and we had a met from some news channel in new orleans and he was talking about bob, he said he was a changed man, he said he used to be a small little crazy man
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