Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#161 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:33 pm

042
WHXX04 KWBC 171729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.0 67.7 285./13.0
6 22.0 68.4 322./11.8
12 22.4 69.2 299./ 8.1
18 22.8 70.2 293./10.2
24 23.2 71.1 294./ 9.6
30 23.5 71.9 290./ 7.8
36 24.0 72.6 306./ 8.5
42 24.3 73.7 282./10.1
48 24.5 74.8 280./ 9.8
54 24.7 75.8 282./ 9.5
60 24.7 76.9 274./ 9.9
66 24.7 78.1 269./11.3
72 24.9 79.3 276./11.1
78 24.9 80.5 274./10.9
84 25.0 81.6 273./ 9.8
90 25.0 82.8 272./10.2
96 25.1 83.8 276./ 9.4
102 25.3 84.7 281./ 8.2
108 25.5 85.5 285./ 7.4
114 25.9 86.2 294./ 7.7
120 26.4 86.9 308./ 8.4
126 27.1 87.7 310./ 9.6
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#162 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:37 pm

if my math serves me correct, this latest GFDL run brings 96L closer to south florida.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SkeetoBite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 515
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:25 am
Contact:
Contact SkeetoBite

#163 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:38 pm

GFDL updated. Consistent...
Image
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#164 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:GFDL updated. Consistent...
Image


:crazyeyes: :shocked!:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#165 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

Oh my god
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#166 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

there appears to be a closed low forming near 67W
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#167 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:if my math serves me correct, this latest GFDL run brings 96L closer to south florida.

<RICKY>


Yes indeed.

Code: Select all

72 24.9 79.3 276./11.1
78 24.9 80.5 274./10.9
84 25.0 81.6 273./ 9.8


That's crossing the central Keys.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#168 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

gfdl is to close to me...but im sticking with my northern gulf coast prediction
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#169 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:40 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:there appears to be a closed low forming near 67W


Derek, real quick. What are your very initial thoughts on the latest GFDL run for 96L??

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
CocoCreek
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:26 pm
Location: Coconut Creek, FL

#170 Postby CocoCreek » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:41 pm

Concerning to say the least as GFDL is definitely one of the more solid models...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#171 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:41 pm

I'm really not liking that GFDL...this scenario setting up is looking all to familiar...going all the way back to last year with Frances...and for that matter, I'm not convinced that TD 17 is going to leave us alone either...I can't imagine there being that big of a weakness in the high to let 17 be a fish.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#172 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:43 pm

RSMAS MM5 off of the Canadian also shows a hurricane, and that has been by far the best model available
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#173 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:RSMAS MM5 off of the Canadian also shows a hurricane, and that has been by far the best model available


where does it show this system first forming into a hurricane?

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#174 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:45 pm

are you sure derek, it still looks weak to me
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#175 Postby jasons2k » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:47 pm

Now getting concerned Derek...esp. with GFDL doing what it's doing and GFS shifting ridge away from TX....where does your model take it?
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#176 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:48 pm

GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2336
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

#177 Postby cajungal » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:49 pm

Please let the GFDL be wrong. We can't take even a weak system over here. It makes me nervous even looking at it. I wonder what Bob Breck's VIPIR model will say when it actually develops. LOL. Just wanted to give you each a little laugh to ease the tension.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#178 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:50 pm

Rainband wrote:GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.
.


GFDL was the first one to show td17 N now all are showing N. GFDL was the best one with Katrina. This season GFDL is the MVP
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#179 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:50 pm

ouch
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#180 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:51 pm

cajungal wrote:Please let the GFDL be wrong. We can't take even a weak system over here. It makes me nervous even looking at it. I wonder what Bob Breck's VIPIR model will say when it actually develops. LOL. Just wanted to give you each a little laugh to ease the tension.


we had a meteorology meeting at usa the other day and we had a met from some news channel in new orleans and he was talking about bob, he said he was a changed man, he said he used to be a small little crazy man
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MarioProtVI, TheHurricaneGod and 64 guests