Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
soonertwister
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1091
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:52 pm

#541 Postby soonertwister » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:55 pm

I remember all the posts on Katrina going this way and that, as she wobbled her way toward NOLA and S Mississippi.

Some were wobbling her toward FL, some toward TX. I got dizzy just reading about it.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#542 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:56 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No...Rita is strengthing and doing it rapidly..


Pressure went up 1mb since the previous vortex message.

Not saying she won't resume strengthening, but she's not intensifying just at this moment.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#543 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:56 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No...Rita is strengthing and doing it rapidly..


I meant that over time Rita may not get as strong as expected. Also, it appears that clouds from shear are getting into Rita's main cloud mass. Sorry if you don't understand what I mean... I'm not trying to sound dumb at it...
0 likes   

User avatar
milankovitch
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 243
Age: 40
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:30 pm
Location: Menands, NY; SUNY Albany
Contact:

#544 Postby milankovitch » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

artist wrote:seems before intensification this always happens as well doesn't it? not saying it is, but is that not true?


right the system will expand and then contract and intensify I belive that could be happening here.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#545 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

I think recon caught her between bursts of convection, but I will take the 5 hours of westward motion!

That ridge looks pretty strong but five days out is a long ways away, still afair chance she will make landfall in the western gulf near a less populated area.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#546 Postby artist » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

x-y-no - is that not fairly common before a storm strengthens though?
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#547 Postby artist » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:59 pm

thanks milankovitch!
0 likes   

User avatar
gtalum
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4749
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Bradenton, FL
Contact:

#548 Postby gtalum » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:02 pm

She looks ot my untrained eye as though she's well south of the forecast track and making a beeline for Havana.
0 likes   

JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#549 Postby JPmia » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:06 pm

looks like center of storm on MIA long range? If so, appears to be moving a little south of due west?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#550 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:07 pm

gtalum wrote:She looks ot my untrained eye as though she's well south of the forecast track and making a beeline for Havana.


It is slightly south of the forecast track right now, but in large part there's an illusion being caused by the bulk of the strong convection being south of the center, where earlier today it was more north of the center.
0 likes   

User avatar
gtalum
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4749
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Bradenton, FL
Contact:

#551 Postby gtalum » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:09 pm

Oh okay I think I see what you're saying.

Well, that's why I confessed to being untrained. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#552 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:10 pm

It is slightly south of the forecast track right now, but in large part there's an illusion being caused by the bulk of the strong convection being south of the center, where earlier today it was more north of the center.


My conjecture is that she is really starting to feel the influence of the ridging to the north....
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#553 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:16 pm

gtalum wrote:Oh okay I think I see what you're saying.

Well, that's why I confessed to being untrained. :lol:


Without an eye to track, judging motion by looking at sattelite imagery is tough even for the trained eye, since the movement of high cloud-tops generally doesn't match what's happening at the surface.

But fortunately, we have recon in there right now, so we don't need to guess.

:D
0 likes   

HumanCookie
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:19 am
Location: Columbia, MD

Who is this NHC Employee?

#554 Postby HumanCookie » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:16 pm

Image

Look at the track on the screen.
Last edited by HumanCookie on Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#555 Postby vaffie » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:17 pm

I think it wobbled south and its cloudtops have cooled a little, but overall, the general trend is very rapid strengthening and west to westnorthwest movement. It's pretty certain. The jog to the south might have been the result of a brief interaction with Cuba, but it will just as likely now "bounce off"--because the wind at the front will be blowing into Cuba and as a result of action-reaction, Cuba will push it back, something made more likely by the fact that it is moving almost parallel to the coast now.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#556 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:27 pm

That is the Deputy Director of the NHC Ed Rappaport...

That track is NOT the 11am track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 24W_sm.gif

The 3-day cone does not cover SE LA.
0 likes   
#neversummer

djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#557 Postby djtil » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:29 pm

the general trend is very rapid strengthening


huh? can you post your reason for saying this? pressure? wind speeds? satellite?

none of those show "very rapid strengthening" over the course of any meaningful time frame today.
0 likes   

mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#558 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:29 pm

Brent wrote:That is the Deputy Director of the NHC Ed Rappaport...

That track is NOT the 11am track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 24W_sm.gif

The 3-day cone does not cover SE LA.


It looks like the box in the upper right-hand corner says "2PM EDT". I didn't know they made forecast updates every 3 hours though (I guess maybe they don't publicize them...?).
0 likes   

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2127
Age: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#559 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:31 pm

I was just thinking it looked like 2pm also. Interesting to see where the placement of the storm is going across the Keys in that map..... :eek:
0 likes   

jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#560 Postby jpigott » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:32 pm

I have a question. Look at the current animated loop at the Ramsdis site. If you look just to the north of the recent convection blow up, there looks to be the LLC tracking WNW. Am i seeing this correct, or is the LLC under the recent convective blow up?
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest