Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

soonertwister · #541 Postby **soonertwister** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:55 pm

I remember all the posts on Katrina going this way and that, as she wobbled her way toward NOLA and S Mississippi.

Some were wobbling her toward FL, some toward TX. I got dizzy just reading about it.

x-y-no · #542 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:56 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No...Rita is strengthing and doing it rapidly..

Pressure went up 1mb since the previous vortex message.

Not saying she won't resume strengthening, but she's not intensifying just at this moment.

MiamiensisWx · #543 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:56 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No...Rita is strengthing and doing it rapidly..

I meant that over time Rita may not get as strong as expected. Also, it appears that clouds from shear are getting into Rita's main cloud mass. Sorry if you don't understand what I mean... I'm not trying to sound dumb at it...

milankovitch · #544 Postby **milankovitch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

artist wrote:seems before intensification this always happens as well doesn't it? not saying it is, but is that not true?

right the system will expand and then contract and intensify I belive that could be happening here.

Nimbus · #545 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

I think recon caught her between bursts of convection, but I will take the 5 hours of westward motion!

That ridge looks pretty strong but five days out is a long ways away, still afair chance she will make landfall in the western gulf near a less populated area.

artist · #546 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:57 pm

x-y-no - is that not fairly common before a storm strengthens though?

artist · #547 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:59 pm

thanks milankovitch!

gtalum · #548 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:02 pm

She looks ot my untrained eye as though she's well south of the forecast track and making a beeline for Havana.

#549 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:06 pm

looks like center of storm on MIA long range? If so, appears to be moving a little south of due west?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

x-y-no · #550 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:07 pm

gtalum wrote:She looks ot my untrained eye as though she's well south of the forecast track and making a beeline for Havana.

It is slightly south of the forecast track right now, but in large part there's an illusion being caused by the bulk of the strong convection being south of the center, where earlier today it was more north of the center.

gtalum · #551 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:09 pm

Oh okay I think I see what you're saying.

Well, that's why I confessed to being untrained. :lol:

#552 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:10 pm

It is slightly south of the forecast track right now, but in large part there's an illusion being caused by the bulk of the strong convection being south of the center, where earlier today it was more north of the center.

My conjecture is that she is really starting to feel the influence of the ridging to the north....

x-y-no · #553 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:16 pm

gtalum wrote:Oh okay I think I see what you're saying.

Well, that's why I confessed to being untrained.

Without an eye to track, judging motion by looking at sattelite imagery is tough even for the trained eye, since the movement of high cloud-tops generally doesn't match what's happening at the surface.

But fortunately, we have recon in there right now, so we don't need to guess.

HumanCookie · #554 Postby **HumanCookie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:16 pm

Look at the track on the screen.

vaffie · #555 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:17 pm

I think it wobbled south and its cloudtops have cooled a little, but overall, the general trend is very rapid strengthening and west to westnorthwest movement. It's pretty certain. The jog to the south might have been the result of a brief interaction with Cuba, but it will just as likely now "bounce off"--because the wind at the front will be blowing into Cuba and as a result of action-reaction, Cuba will push it back, something made more likely by the fact that it is moving almost parallel to the coast now.

Website · #556 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:27 pm

That is the Deputy Director of the NHC Ed Rappaport...

That track is NOT the 11am track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 24W_sm.gif

The 3-day cone does not cover SE LA.

djtil · #557 Postby **djtil** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:29 pm

the general trend is very rapid strengthening

huh? can you post your reason for saying this? pressure? wind speeds? satellite?

none of those show "very rapid strengthening" over the course of any meaningful time frame today.

mtm4319 · #558 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:29 pm

Brent wrote:That is the Deputy Director of the NHC Ed Rappaport...

That track is NOT the 11am track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 24W_sm.gif

The 3-day cone does not cover SE LA.

It looks like the box in the upper right-hand corner says "2PM EDT". I didn't know they made forecast updates every 3 hours though (I guess maybe they don't publicize them...?).

#559 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:31 pm

I was just thinking it looked like 2pm also. Interesting to see where the placement of the storm is going across the Keys in that map..... :eek:

jpigott · #560 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:32 pm

I have a question. Look at the current animated loop at the Ramsdis site. If you look just to the north of the recent convection blow up, there looks to be the LLC tracking WNW. Am i seeing this correct, or is the LLC under the recent convective blow up?

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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