New GFDL

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HouTXmetro
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#21 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:47 pm

LarryWx wrote:I was just told by a met. that the 12Z GFDL is further SW than its prior run, i.e., further away from Galveston.


Great news for Galveston, bad for someone else though.
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dwg71
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#22 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:49 pm

Latest has Matagorda Bay. The Due west heading is going to start affecting some of these models.

Ortt's track seem to be very reasonable.
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HouTXmetro
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#23 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:50 pm

But wait, according to Hicksta the GFDL run was further North and east. WHats going on?
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deltadog03
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#24 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:51 pm

12z GFDL did shift a little south...about 20miles or so...the 12z ukmet has shifted north as well...near the current nhc track
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#25 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:51 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:But wait, according to Hicksta the GFDL run was further North and east. WHats going on?


He's talking about 12Z run, the 18Z is out.
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#26 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:52 pm

hold your horses DWG....the 12z ukmet, and 12z GFS shifted north...
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Mac

#27 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:54 pm

There's nothing wrong with speculating where this thing might make landfall. But let's take it all with a grain of salt at this point, folks. We're talking about a storm that is around 4 days from making landfall. The forecast error this far out is HUGE. There's little point in making any grande and definitive predictions about where she'll land. She'll go wherever the high pressure system allows her to go. If the high erodes quickly, she'll head north more quickly. If the high hangs in there longer, she'll hit further west. But we simply won't have much of an idea of where she'll end up until inside of 48 hours.
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dwg71
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#28 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:57 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hold your horses DWG....the 12z ukmet, and 12z GFS shifted north...


The UKMET seems to have a good grip on it. The GFS is...well...like you said many times before...the GFS. Take it for what its worth.

I hope she keeps current speed.
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jasons2k
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#29 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:07 pm

Pick your poison, remember the UKMET had Dennis going into NOLA until the very end.
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LarryWx
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#30 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:08 pm

The just released 12Z TUE ECMWF has also shifted SW. The prior run was near Galveston. However, this run is ~75 miles SW of there.

Image
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