New GFDL

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#21 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:47 pm

LarryWx wrote:I was just told by a met. that the 12Z GFDL is further SW than its prior run, i.e., further away from Galveston.


Great news for Galveston, bad for someone else though.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#22 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:49 pm

Latest has Matagorda Bay. The Due west heading is going to start affecting some of these models.

Ortt's track seem to be very reasonable.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#23 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:50 pm

But wait, according to Hicksta the GFDL run was further North and east. WHats going on?
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#24 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:51 pm

12z GFDL did shift a little south...about 20miles or so...the 12z ukmet has shifted north as well...near the current nhc track
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#25 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:51 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:But wait, according to Hicksta the GFDL run was further North and east. WHats going on?


He's talking about 12Z run, the 18Z is out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#26 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:52 pm

hold your horses DWG....the 12z ukmet, and 12z GFS shifted north...
0 likes   
Top
Mac

#27 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:54 pm

There's nothing wrong with speculating where this thing might make landfall. But let's take it all with a grain of salt at this point, folks. We're talking about a storm that is around 4 days from making landfall. The forecast error this far out is HUGE. There's little point in making any grande and definitive predictions about where she'll land. She'll go wherever the high pressure system allows her to go. If the high erodes quickly, she'll head north more quickly. If the high hangs in there longer, she'll hit further west. But we simply won't have much of an idea of where she'll end up until inside of 48 hours.
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#28 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:57 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hold your horses DWG....the 12z ukmet, and 12z GFS shifted north...


The UKMET seems to have a good grip on it. The GFS is...well...like you said many times before...the GFS. Take it for what its worth.

I hope she keeps current speed.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#29 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:07 pm

Pick your poison, remember the UKMET had Dennis going into NOLA until the very end.
0 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6853
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#30 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:08 pm

The just released 12Z TUE ECMWF has also shifted SW. The prior run was near Galveston. However, this run is ~75 miles SW of there.

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, riapal, wwizard and 363 guests