99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

Wow ... I was out of pocket today for a few hours, checked the satellite and visible and the low looked paltry to me. Now I read Wxman57's analysis (whom I trust) and sounds like we might have "game on" for this weekend. Yikes!

It's not a named system yet and I think there are many things that can happen. Watch and wait. Noone knows where it will go . Way to early.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

[dixiebreeze]

The 8:05 NHC Discussion clearly likes the chances for 99. Probably TD by late Wed. or early Thurs.

[Stratosphere747]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

No...And stop before you start...

[Portastorm]

Can someone tell me why it looks like the Caribbean low is moving north?

UL to the north.

Thanks Strat ... wondered what I was looking at.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like shear from the ULL north and west of INVEST.99L is shearing the western and northwestern parts of the system.

[Rainband]

The 8:05 NHC Discussion clearly likes the chances for 99. Probably TD by late Wed. or early Thurs.

Well it won't be coming to Florida. Thats the good news

[Stratosphere747]

Can someone tell me why it looks like the Caribbean low is moving north?

UL to the north.

Thanks Strat ... wondered what I was looking at.

Porta, here is a great view of what is happening ahead of any system. Of course it only gives a simplistic view of what is really going on..

I'll leave the rest to the pros.

Scott

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

No...And stop before you start...

lol if it goes north it may die over Cuba w/o becoming anything. and leave GOMers with a relaxed state of mind hopefully.

Nahh that probably won't happen, but any northern shifts
increase chances for places further up the coast along the
Western GOM, and for places on the E GOM given closer proximity
to a cold front diving south by Friday.

Don't worry it won't get me Unless I do something evil...

[tracyswfla]

The 8:05 NHC Discussion clearly likes the chances for 99. Probably TD by late Wed. or early Thurs.

Well it won't be coming to Florida. Thats the good news

Are you sure?

[Lifesgud2]

Why do you say it wont hit Florida? Its very possibile it will...

[jasons2k]

Looks like it's getting sheared right now to me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

99L is one odd critter. Weirdest Carribean system. One heck of
a robotnik-o-machine. From sonic hedgehog. This is me right now
after days of tracking this thing:


Anyway it is being sheared somewhat now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where are the 00z models for 99L????

[Rainband]

Models are speculation until it gets more organized. Then the Globals will start talking

[skysummit]

Models are speculation until it gets more organized. Then the Globals will start talking

Right...to hell with the models right now. They don't mean anything.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is definately appearing to be getting sheared.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models are speculation until it gets more organized. Then the Globals will start talking

Right...to hell with the models right now. They don't mean anything.

I know, but just out of "shear" curiosity I wanted to see them (haha
funny pun not!)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050928 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050928 0000 050928 1200 050929 0000 050929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 78.1W 17.0N 80.0W 18.1N 81.3W 18.9N 82.2W
BAMM 15.6N 78.1W 16.9N 80.1W 18.1N 81.8W 19.1N 83.1W
A98E 15.6N 78.1W 16.7N 80.4W 17.7N 82.3W 18.7N 83.7W
LBAR 15.6N 78.1W 17.1N 80.2W 18.9N 81.4W 20.6N 82.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050930 0000 051001 0000 051002 0000 051003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 82.9W 19.4N 84.8W 19.8N 87.5W 20.1N 90.4W
BAMM 19.6N 84.0W 20.4N 86.3W 21.3N 89.2W 21.7N 92.7W
A98E 19.4N 85.0W 21.4N 86.9W 22.8N 89.2W 24.7N 92.7W
LBAR 22.1N 82.2W 25.1N 82.7W 27.9N 83.5W 30.5N 84.6W
SHIP 56KTS 73KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 56KTS 73KTS 47KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 78.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 75.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 73.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models.Until a LLC forms the models are not a good tool but I only post them for information so dont shoot the messanger.

[vaffie]

In my opinion:
It's circulation and definition is increasing by the hour. All it takes is another massive convection blowup. Considering the next nightly convection blow-up is probably going to begin in the next three-six hours, I would actually be surprised if it is not a 50 mph Tropical Storm by 5 pm on Wednesday, and a hurricane as soon as 5 pm on Thursday. It's a real good thing they're sending their reconaissance airplane in tomorrow, otherwise none of the models will be able to initialize properly --even by tomorrow night, and we still won't have a clue where it's going. -vaffie