92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxmann_91]

I have the strange odd feeling that Stan could do a Mitch...stall, move southward, and then zip back northeastward. Of course intensity-wise Stan has no chance, but the track could be like that.

Very complex indeed.

[Brent]

I have the strange odd feeling that Stan could do a Mitch...stall, move southward, and then zip back northeastward. Of course intensity-wise Stan has no chance, but the track could be like that.

Very complex indeed.

The Mitch than went northeast was in no way the Category 5 Mitch that went southward and killed thousands. It was more of a hybrid system that got caught up in a frontal boundary.

[Rainband]

I think I see some deviation from the theme of thread and that is 92L. Let's try to focus our discussions on this invest.

A hybrid was mentioned and thats what we were discussing. No harm no foul

[wxmann_91]

I have the strange odd feeling that Stan could do a Mitch...stall, move southward, and then zip back northeastward. Of course intensity-wise Stan has no chance, but the track could be like that.

Very complex indeed.

The Mitch than went northeast was in no way the Category 5 Mitch that went southward and killed thousands. It was more of a hybrid system that got caught up in a frontal boundary.

Exactly, which brings up another point...the hybrid system that is forecasted in the northeastern GOM could be Stan instead of Tammy.

Now, back on topic (had no idea this thread was about 92L until now), my thinking is that 92L/possible future Tammy will either recurve out to sea or threaten Bermuda.

[krysof]

I have the strange odd feeling that Stan could do a Mitch...stall, move southward, and then zip back northeastward. Of course intensity-wise Stan has no chance, but the track could be like that.

Very complex indeed.

The Mitch than went northeast was in no way the Category 5 Mitch that went southward and killed thousands. It was more of a hybrid system that got caught up in a frontal boundary.

Exactly, which brings up another point...the hybrid system that is forecasted in the northeastern GOM could be Stan instead of Tammy.

Now, back on topic (had no idea this thread was about 92L until now), my thinking is that 92L/possible future Tammy will either recurve out to sea or threaten Bermuda.

Only if the ridge breaks down by the frontal boundary.

[fci]

I have the strange odd feeling that Stan could do a Mitch...stall, move southward, and then zip back northeastward. Of course intensity-wise Stan has no chance, but the track could be like that.

Very complex indeed.

The Mitch than went northeast was in no way the Category 5 Mitch that went southward and killed thousands. It was more of a hybrid system that got caught up in a frontal boundary.

Exactly, which brings up another point...the hybrid system that is forecasted in the northeastern GOM could be Stan instead of Tammy.

Now, back on topic (had no idea this thread was about 92L until now), my thinking is that 92L/possible future Tammy will either recurve out to sea or threaten Bermuda.

When all is said and done.... I agree with you.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Someone please answer my questions
There's like 5 models bringing 92L right up to where I live
and with SHIPS I am concerned about a hurricane threat for
my area.

1. Will an LLC establish itself further east than the models are
indicating?
2. Will the motion of 92L be slower than what the models are
indicating?

In order to be serious threat for Tampa the storm would have to do the following

1) move slower than forecasted
2) move through the FL straits
3) turn N then NE at the perfect time after emerging into the GOM


I don't see any of these happening.

Hopefully none will happen, but its the models that are scary, several
of them have it going right off the coast close enough to give us a
good whippin (though not a direct hit).

But explain why you think it may not play out this way- just so I
can feel more confident in your reasons for it missing me
I want it to miss me and will go crazy until I feel confident it will...

[cycloneye]

I think I see some deviation from the theme of thread and that is 92L. Let's try to focus our discussions on this invest.

A hybrid was mentioned and thats what we were discussing. No harm no foul

Yes no harm no foul at all.

[CHRISTY]

high pressure may be to strong.

[gatorcane]

Hopefully none will happen, but its the models that are scary, several
of them have it going right off the coast close enough to give us a
good whippin (though not a direct hit).

But explain why you think it may not play out this way- just so I
can feel more confident in your reasons for it missing me

There was actually one that I didn't mention. There has to be something there first, like an LLC. Looking at the latest sat pics, it's looking less impressive by the minute.

I would expect another flare up tonight followed by a flare down etc as the whole mess moves into the peninsula of FL.

[Brent]

There was actually one that I didn't mention. There has to be something there first, like an LLC. Looking at the latest sat pics, it's looking less impressive by the minute.

Yep... and unless it looks a lot better in the morning, I'm guessing recon will NOT go tomorrow.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hopefully none will happen, but its the models that are scary, several
of them have it going right off the coast close enough to give us a
good whippin (though not a direct hit).

But explain why you think it may not play out this way- just so I
can feel more confident in your reasons for it missing me

There was actually one that I didn't mention. There has to be something there first, like an LLC. Looking at the latest sat pics, it's looking less impressive by the minute.

I would expect another flare up tonight followed by a flare down etc as the whole mess moves into the peninsula of FL.

Thank you for the explanations

[gatorcane]

Tampa Bay Hurricane, anytime. I used to live in Northern Pinellas County in the Palm Harbor area and I've also lived in the Davis Islands.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

A LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

[gatorcane]

A LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

So in other words no change since the 530 advisory.

[CHRISTY]

its lost convection 2nite but NHC says favorable conditions me be a head of it.

[Scorpion]

Just got some nice squalls from whatever is out there. Also quite windy by the beach. Just tells me something is brewing out there.

[Rainband]

Looks pretty weak at this point. Lets see what Tuesday brings Maybe just some rain. We need rain..so thats good news.

[CHRISTY]

intensity wise its up in the air!

[CHRISTY]