
94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
- Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
Brief Update:
Invest 94L has moved toward the NW overnight and has slowed down significantly. I was deceived yesterday by the way convection had refired, which made it look to be moving toward the west. Thunderstorm activity last night left some evidence of a low-mid level circulation (not closed) that you can see near 14N 49W.
Even though convection has decreased significantly overnight, it may very well re-fire soon. Conditions aloft are only marginally favorable due to southwesterly flow in the upper-levels. However, since the tropical wave has slowed down significantly, it should allow enough time for the flow to move farther away from it. I'll keep watching.
Invest 94L has moved toward the NW overnight and has slowed down significantly. I was deceived yesterday by the way convection had refired, which made it look to be moving toward the west. Thunderstorm activity last night left some evidence of a low-mid level circulation (not closed) that you can see near 14N 49W.
Even though convection has decreased significantly overnight, it may very well re-fire soon. Conditions aloft are only marginally favorable due to southwesterly flow in the upper-levels. However, since the tropical wave has slowed down significantly, it should allow enough time for the flow to move farther away from it. I'll keep watching.
0 likes
Here is the TWO:Possible Low near 14N/51W:
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AND LATEST VIS PICTURES SHOW A POSSIBLE LOW NEAR
14N51W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE N PART OF THE
WAVE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 46W-51W.
And a well defined circulation in another wave to the east near 8N/34W:
EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS A RATHER
FLAT SIGNATURE YET THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ALONG 8N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
33W-36W.
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AND LATEST VIS PICTURES SHOW A POSSIBLE LOW NEAR
14N51W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE N PART OF THE
WAVE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 46W-51W.
And a well defined circulation in another wave to the east near 8N/34W:
EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS A RATHER
FLAT SIGNATURE YET THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ALONG 8N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
33W-36W.
0 likes
94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring
Here is the Two:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.
Here is the Two:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.
0 likes
OURAGAN wrote:94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring
Here is the Two:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.
also the shear will be favorable for additional development
0 likes
krysof wrote:OURAGAN wrote:94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring
Here is the Two:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.
also the shear will be favorable for additional development
Yep...
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145632
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051009 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.6W 15.7N 56.9W 16.4N 58.2W
BAMM 14.7N 54.3W 15.4N 56.0W 16.4N 57.8W 17.8N 59.4W
A98E 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 56.5W 16.0N 58.5W 16.9N 60.1W
LBAR 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.9W 15.7N 57.6W 16.6N 59.4W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 59.4W 17.7N 61.5W 17.7N 63.0W 16.8N 64.1W
BAMM 19.4N 61.0W 24.1N 62.5W 29.4N 61.8W 34.3N 62.2W
A98E 17.7N 61.5W 20.6N 63.0W 23.6N 62.3W 27.6N 59.9W
LBAR 17.5N 61.0W 19.0N 62.6W 19.3N 63.0W 19.9N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 51.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
94 continues to have runs from the models.Here is the 18:00z.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.6W 15.7N 56.9W 16.4N 58.2W
BAMM 14.7N 54.3W 15.4N 56.0W 16.4N 57.8W 17.8N 59.4W
A98E 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 56.5W 16.0N 58.5W 16.9N 60.1W
LBAR 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.9W 15.7N 57.6W 16.6N 59.4W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 59.4W 17.7N 61.5W 17.7N 63.0W 16.8N 64.1W
BAMM 19.4N 61.0W 24.1N 62.5W 29.4N 61.8W 34.3N 62.2W
A98E 17.7N 61.5W 20.6N 63.0W 23.6N 62.3W 27.6N 59.9W
LBAR 17.5N 61.0W 19.0N 62.6W 19.3N 63.0W 19.9N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 51.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
94 continues to have runs from the models.Here is the 18:00z.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Big pressure drop, down to 1009. But, of course, Formosa can't say much on the system, though this is actually a good bit for him.
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN THE
BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 9N-12N BETWEEN
53W-55W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN THE
BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 9N-12N BETWEEN
53W-55W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1122
- Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
- Location: Orange, California
- Contact:
Rainband wrote:NO. Look at the modelsNoah wrote:This storm a florida threat, or invest 94 should i say a threat?
The models say what will happen to a system where the invest is NOW. They don't say much about what will happen if it becomes a system in the Carribbean. Until it becomes a depression, at least, it doesn't experience the steering currents the models use to predict. XTRP is probably the best model for the next few days.

0 likes
- Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
- Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
According to the latest TWD, the associated LOW seems to have dropped in latitude:
...W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WELL-DEFINED WAVE
WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 53W/56W...
Hmmm... I better watch this, just in case.
...W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WELL-DEFINED WAVE
WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 53W/56W...
Hmmm... I better watch this, just in case.
0 likes
- Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: abajan, Category5Kaiju, Google Adsense [Bot], Hypercane_Kyle, ouragans, skillz305, Sps123, Tak5, zzzh and 63 guests