94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Hyperstorm]

Take a look at the latest tropical model forecasts. The most "credible" models from this suite are the BAM models. The rest are based mostly on climatology. Remember that this is NOT etched in stone, so just use it as guidance.

[Hyperstorm]

Brief Update:

Invest 94L has moved toward the NW overnight and has slowed down significantly. I was deceived yesterday by the way convection had refired, which made it look to be moving toward the west. Thunderstorm activity last night left some evidence of a low-mid level circulation (not closed) that you can see near 14N 49W.

Even though convection has decreased significantly overnight, it may very well re-fire soon. Conditions aloft are only marginally favorable due to southwesterly flow in the upper-levels. However, since the tropical wave has slowed down significantly, it should allow enough time for the flow to move farther away from it. I'll keep watching.

[OURAGAN]

Here is the TWO:Possible Low near 14N/51W:

A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AND LATEST VIS PICTURES SHOW A POSSIBLE LOW NEAR
14N51W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE N PART OF THE
WAVE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

And a well defined circulation in another wave to the east near 8N/34W:

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS A RATHER
FLAT SIGNATURE YET THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ALONG 8N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

[OURAGAN]

94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring

Here is the Two:

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.

[krysof]

94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring

Here is the Two:

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.

also the shear will be favorable for additional development

[rockyman]

94L is making a come back, low pressure near 13,5N/53 W,convection is beginning to refiring

Here is the Two:

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN
THE BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 11N52W AND 45 NM OF 15N52.5W.

also the shear will be favorable for additional development

Yep...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.6W 15.7N 56.9W 16.4N 58.2W
BAMM 14.7N 54.3W 15.4N 56.0W 16.4N 57.8W 17.8N 59.4W
A98E 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 56.5W 16.0N 58.5W 16.9N 60.1W
LBAR 14.7N 54.3W 15.2N 55.9W 15.7N 57.6W 16.6N 59.4W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 18KTS 21KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 59.4W 17.7N 61.5W 17.7N 63.0W 16.8N 64.1W
BAMM 19.4N 61.0W 24.1N 62.5W 29.4N 61.8W 34.3N 62.2W
A98E 17.7N 61.5W 20.6N 63.0W 23.6N 62.3W 27.6N 59.9W
LBAR 17.5N 61.0W 19.0N 62.6W 19.3N 63.0W 19.9N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 50KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 51.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


94 continues to have runs from the models.Here is the 18:00z.

[krysof]

Who knows maybe remnat low of sub 22 will redevelop into Wilma
, and 94L into Alpha or the other way around.

[rockyman]

94L is quickly approaching the intense convection over the NE Caribbean...What are the chances of this system being able to "tap into" the energy from that convection and really blossom over the next 48 hours? Also, won't the ULL to the north begin to ventilate this system?

[Noah]

This storm a florida threat, or invest 94 should i say a threat?

[WindRunner]

Big pressure drop, down to 1009. But, of course, Formosa can't say much on the system, though this is actually a good bit for him.

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED IN THE
BASIN WITH BROAD ROTATION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 9N-12N BETWEEN
53W-55W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

[Rainband]

This storm a florida threat, or invest 94 should i say a threat?

NO. Look at the models

[LAwxrgal]

Big trough off the East Coast should push this one away from most land masses.

[curtadams]

This storm a florida threat, or invest 94 should i say a threat?

NO. Look at the models

The models say what will happen to a system where the invest is NOW. They don't say much about what will happen if it becomes a system in the Carribbean. Until it becomes a depression, at least, it doesn't experience the steering currents the models use to predict. XTRP is probably the best model for the next few days. Nothing seems good for deciding what's going to become a cyclone, when, and where - and without that information the tracks aren't useful either.

[Weatherfreak14]

So is this a US threat or not. I'm confused.

[aerojad]

If it clears 18N, probably not. If it can manage to stay south of there, it may track through the Carribean.

[krysof]

If it clears 18N, probably not. If it can manage to stay south of there, it may track through the Carribean.

that would be bad if it managed to go into the Caribbean, plenty warm there

[Weatherfreak14]

I surf some and I am still mad about missin tammy as I was up in Indiana. I just wonderin if the east coast could get some surf. Forcast is calling for 2-4 ft seas 20nm out. And TWC says that NC and above will get some surf. But I live in SC.

[abajan]

According to the latest TWD, the associated LOW seems to have dropped in latitude:

...W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WELL-DEFINED WAVE
WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 53W/56W...

Hmmm... I better watch this, just in case.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yes, I agree I say a 30% chance of this developing but you never know.