Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#201 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 4:08 pm

This has certainly been the storm that I will remember this season by. (I'm well aware this might look mad to a lot of you on here)

Edit - Hmm, the advisories thread is locked.

WTNT43 KNHC 102049
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID
NOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE. SSTS NEAR
22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY
DECLINE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS
WEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...
2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION.
EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE
JUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT. VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY
44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH
MEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME. HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT
DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.

VINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING
AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW.
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT.

FORECASTER KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 35.9N 11.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 8.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #202 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 4:42 pm

P.K. wrote:Did you not say the same about the chances of it becoming a hurricane though?

I can't see it doing that either though.

10/1800 UTC 35.2N 13.0W T2.5/3.0 VINCE -- Atlantic Ocean

LOL... well, I'll be honest: that scenario I came up with was from the surface progs out of the 21st OWS (USAF) of Sembach, Germany.

#203 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 5:12 pm

Can't be often you have used those for TCs!

The current Sembach chart for anyone else who is interested: http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/semb0.png

#204 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 5:30 pm

At 21Z there was a 41 knots report from a ship (V2ON3, the Monteverde from Germany) at 13°42'W 34°42'N. So Vince still has some power.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #205 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 5:38 pm

P.K. wrote:Can't be often you have used those for TCs!

The current Sembach chart for anyone else who is interested: http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/semb0.png

Shoot... back a few years ago I used to make this charts from Sembach. I would use a TC symbol once in a while only for Indian Ocean cyclones, but never an Atlantic storm.

Here are more Sembach charts: http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/wxcharts/wxcharts.htm

#206 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:10 pm

P.K I forgot to leave that advisorie thread open :oops:

as I was without power for over 4 hours until now.I locked it because there were replies and that is for advisories only.

WindRunner · #207 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:50 pm

00Z models have him back to 40kts and down to 998mb. Either restrengthening :?:

or transitioning now.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0000 051011 1200 051012 0000 051012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.0N 10.6W 37.4N 5.0W 38.0N .5W 38.2N 3.0E
BAMM 36.0N 10.6W 38.3N 5.5W 40.1N 1.4W 41.7N 1.2E
A98E 36.0N 10.6W 37.0N 6.2W 37.9N 1.9W 38.3N 2.1E
LBAR 36.0N 10.6W 37.4N 5.4W 37.9N .7W 37.9N 2.7E

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0000 051014 0000 051015 0000 051016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.9N 7.1E 36.0N 16.1E 33.1N 25.4E 35.3N 39.0E
BAMM 43.7N 2.9E 46.1N 1.7E 48.2N 4.6W 54.4N 11.6W
A98E 38.8N 5.0E 40.4N 11.5E 39.1N 22.1E 37.9N 39.5E
LBAR 37.4N 5.5E 38.8N 1.3E 42.1N 1.2W 41.2N 1.7E

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.0N LONCUR = 10.6W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 34.7N LONM12 = 15.3W DIRM12 = 75DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 18.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 185NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 0NM

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #208 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:01 pm

Ship report. It still has a well defined LLC. Even so it may not have alot of convection...I beleve its still tropical.

fasterdisaster · #209 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 10:09 pm

It is still tropical in the latest advisory. When will Vince make landfall?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #210 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:06 am

Latest satellite shows it moving due Eastward. If this keeps up its going to make the Med...Come on Vince Wahooo!!!

One quastion will the nhc be able to issue Advisories once in the Med? Is it still inside there area?

http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcServi ... d=444&l=en

fasterdisaster · #211 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:08 am

Due eastward it will head to Portugal, I doubt Vince will go to the Mediterranean. Besides, I really wanna see the first tropical storm to make landfall in Europe.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #212 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:13 am

It would still have to cross over a thin area of land to get into the Med. So if it did so we would have a landfall+A cyclone in the Med.

fasterdisaster · #213 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:18 am

I suppose that's possible.

mtm4319 · #214 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:50 am

It appears that Vince is now just offshore the southern coast of Portugal. It should be making landfall between 0700Z and 0800Z, or within the next 75 minutes from the time I'm typing this. The picture below is from 0600Z.

Since the next NHC advisory won't be coming until 5 AM AST, it's likely that Vince will have made landfall on the Iberian Peninsula as a tropical storm.

mtm4319 · #215 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:03 am

Faro (on the southern coast of Portugal) is reporting east winds at 23mph and a pressure of 1003mb.

Jerez de la Frontera, Spain is getting sustained SE winds at 20mph.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #216 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:22 am

Wow its very close to the Med. First tropical storm to hit Spain!

mtm4319 · #217 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow its very close to the Med. First tropical storm to hit Spain!

The area of strongest convection is to the east of the center. On the satellite loop (click the Play button or "Animar" to show the loop) you can see the center of circulation currently located due south of the area between Faro and Santo Antonio in Portugal. It might have even made landfall - it looks very close.

Thunder44 · #218 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 am

042
WHXX01 KWBC 110626
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051011 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0600 051011 1800 051012 0600 051012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 36.8N 8.4W 38.3N 3.5W 38.7N .5E 38.9N 4.0E

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0600 051014 0600 051015 0600 051016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 38.5N 7.0E .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.8N LONCUR = 8.4W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 35.4N LONM12 = 12.8W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 34.5N LONM24 = 17.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

6z models have it now as a 30kt TD. So it looks like TPC is going to downgrade before it makes landfall.

Coredesat · #219 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:31 am

Just the LBAR? Nothing else?

krysof · #220 Postby **krysof** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:34 am

Thunder44 wrote:042
WHXX01 KWBC 110626
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051011 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0600 051011 1800 051012 0600 051012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 36.8N 8.4W 38.3N 3.5W 38.7N .5E 38.9N 4.0E

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0600 051014 0600 051015 0600 051016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 38.5N 7.0E .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.8N LONCUR = 8.4W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 35.4N LONM12 = 12.8W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 34.5N LONM24 = 17.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

6z models have it now as a 30kt TD. So it looks like TPC is going to downgrade before it makes landfall.

I think it already made landfall before.

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