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Weatherboy1
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I would take "farther west" forecasts with a grain

#441 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:19 am

I hope this doesn't come across as "-removed-" or anything, given I'm in northeastern Palm Beach County, but I seriously, seriously doubt this storm is going to make landfall any farther north than, say, Tampa Bay. This time of year -- as alluded to in the 5 a.m. NHC discussion -- troughs tend to dig a lot deeper than models forecast. The tendency (especially in late October) is for storms to hook to the N and NE sooner than forecast. Remember Irene in 1999 -- the official track and several models all had her going almost due N west of Tampa Bay and she ended up crossing the state in a NNE direction and going right over eastern Palm Beach County. Then, as Derek pointed out, you had storms like Michelle and Lily that hooked even more sharply to the NE. Bottom line: I think this storm is a peninsular FL event at this time.
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#442 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:19 am

Opal storm wrote:
StormFury wrote:
ivanhater wrote:12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday



But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.

What is that suppose to mean???


I'm waiting for 120 hours right now... in all likelihood it'll make a hard right towards the Peninsula. I just don't see how this hits the Panhandle, not with these cold fronts.
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#443 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:19 am

Opal storm wrote:
StormFury wrote:
ivanhater wrote:12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday



But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.

What is that suppose to mean???


dude, grow up...i have NEVER said this was coming to Pensacola
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#444 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:20 am

and it begins... Friday at 8am, just north of Cancun.

Image

2pm... moving little. :roll:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126s.gif
Last edited by Brent on Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#445 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:21 am

where is the trough in the gfs??? am i reading it wrong, lol
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#446 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:21 am

Wow the GFS flips flops. Nothing new.
Last edited by Scorpion on Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#447 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am

Last edited by Brent on Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#448 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am

Image
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#449 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am

The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.
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#450 Postby StormFury » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:23 am

And where does it end up?
Sure people in the Yucatan will be worried, but I seriously doubt anyone from the Yucatan is using this forum...so I think its safe to say that the majority of the people on this forum are dying to know where will this storm make a US landfall?
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#451 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:23 am

TS Zack wrote:The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.


:grr:
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#452 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:24 am


The storm will need to make a heck of a right turn to be anything south of Tampa Bay Now...
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#453 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:24 am

StormFury wrote:And where does it end up?
Sure people in the Yucatan will be worried, but I seriously doubt anyone from the Yucatan is using this forum...so I think its safe to say that the majority of the people on this forum are dying to know where will this storm make a US landfall?


It's not out yet... when it is, it'll be posted.
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#454 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:24 am

Brent wrote:
TS Zack wrote:The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.


:grr:


Kicks out quicker too. :wink:
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#455 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:24 am

thanks brent for helping with the images.... its hard to post them all, lol
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#456 Postby x-y-no » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:28 am

I'm pretty suspicious of how much this GFS run is weakening the mid-level ridge over the western Gulf in the 48 to 96 hour timeframe. That seems to be the difference which leads to this more westerly track, and we all know how the GFS loves to break down mid-level ridging.

If the 0Z run is sticking with this idea, I'll take it more seriously.
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#457 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:28 am

x-y-no wrote:I'm pretty suspicious of how much this GFS run is weakening the mid-level ridge over the western Gulf in the 48 to 96 hour timeframe. That seems to be the difference which leads to this more westerly track, and we all know how the GFS loves to break down mid-level ridging.

If the 0Z run is sticking with this idea, I'll take it more seriously.



ya i noticed early on , on this run, i was like where is the trough??? lol
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#458 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:29 am

Wondering if landfall could be more Tampa and North area. If trough is weaker. I am 30 minutes north of tampa so anything coming just north of Tampa would slam into me. Only model run though. I just dont see how it could go north to panhandle if there will be a big trough but GFS shows it weaker. hmm
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#459 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:29 am

I don't even see a trough... :lol:
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#460 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:30 am

Image

:eek: :eek:
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