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jkt21787
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#481 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:42 am

tracyswfla wrote:Ok so now the bandwagon is changing their tune? Ughhhh, I need to step away from the keyboard.

FWIW I'm not a big believer in this GFS. It is possible? definitely. But I don't think it will happen. GFS is too weak with the trough most likely. Will definitely wait for the 00z GFS before giving it too much thought...
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#482 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:43 am

jkt21787 wrote:Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.


Convection IS over the center.
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#483 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:44 am

Brent wrote:Looks like the Cedar Key/Port Richey area? Hard to tell but it's a little north of Tampa.

Image


Looks like the Big Bend area to me. North of Tampa, Big Bend area. Just what i "guessed". We'll see. :D
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#484 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:46 am

fasterdisaster wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.


Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...
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#485 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:50 am

jkt21787 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.


Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still well removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...


It has great outflow, but there is very little convection over the center. I'd have to think though that the circulation is established enough that we would not see the circulation move itself to the bigger blowup to the SW?
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#486 Postby texasweatherwatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:52 am

Image
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#487 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:53 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.


Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still well removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...


It has great outflow, but there is very little convection over the center. I'd have to think though that the circulation is established enough that we would not see the circulation move itself to the bigger blowup to the SW?

I would think that as well.
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#488 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:53 am

texasweatherwatcher wrote:Image



what time was that initialized?
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#489 Postby texasweatherwatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:54 am

Image

Image
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#490 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:54 am

12z nogaps still into central mexico
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#491 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:57 am

tracyswfla wrote:
texasweatherwatcher wrote:



what time was that initialized?


That's the 11am NHC track...
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#492 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:58 am

Brent wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
texasweatherwatcher wrote:



what time was that initialized?


That's the 11am NHC track...

Thanks Brent. It will surely shift left at 5..
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#493 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:00 pm

models are underestimating the power of this trough, I do not think it will go to the left of Florida, I think it will hit west central Florida and then the storm will parallel the trough heading rapidly NNE-possible Donna scenario?
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#494 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:00 pm

ivanhater wrote:12z nogaps still into central mexico


If I remember right, Nogaps was way to far west with Rita...Not sure if it has a westward bias with other storms though..
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#495 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:01 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:12z nogaps still into central mexico


If I remember right, Nogaps was way to far west with Rita...Not sure if it has a westward bias with other storms though..


ya, i believe it had a northern mexico solution for the longest time
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#496 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:05 pm

Please remember Charley as well,the models generlaly predicted a Tampa sort of region,infact it ended up further south then that and in a similar situation prehaps we should watch out incase it happens again.
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#497 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:09 pm

I see a spot of the "gray" convection popping up a little close to the center.(Maybe not over, but close.)
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#498 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:14 pm

anybody have the 12Z GFS yet?

<RICKY>
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#499 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:15 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:anybody have the 12Z GFS yet?

<RICKY>


Go back to Page 24. :lol:

Eastern Yucatan... then north of Tampa.
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Derek Ortt

#500 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:17 pm

NOGAPS and GFDN were the only models to accurately capture the movement of Keith. The other models were blown away by the all powerful CLIPER
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