attention others and rainband,
Ok you tell me if I am totally off.
Port Richey is only like 60-70 miles from cedar key. We could have the east side griding up pasco county as it heads that way. Wouldnt be good for us?
Matt
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floridahurricaneguy
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Rainband
Cedar Key is a lot further than that from me. Probably 150 miles or sofloridahurricaneguy wrote:attention others and rainband,
Ok you tell me if I am totally off.
Port Richey is only like 60-70 miles from cedar key. We could have the east side griding up pasco county as it heads that way. Wouldnt be good for us?
Matt
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floridahurricaneguy
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wxman57
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TS Zack wrote:At this point it is a good bet this storm will hit the CONUS. Unless it goes into Central America.
Depending on how far West and North it gets will determine if it recurves into the Peninsula of Fl, Panhandle, or La/Ms/Al.
We were sure that Michelle in 2001 would hit the western FL peninsula, but it moved more slowly than forecast and the recurve occurred south of Cuba. I wouldn't say a CONUS landfall is a good bet yet, not until it's moving.
<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2001/MICHELLE/track.gif">
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wxman57
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ivanhater wrote:thursday
Trend from 12Z-18Z at 84 hrs is slower movement and a faster moving trof across Texas. Signs that the 18Z GFS might shift east.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Trader Ron
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gatorcane
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Trend from 12Z-18Z at 84 hrs is slower movement and a faster moving trof across Texas. Signs that the 18Z GFS might shift east.
Considering what time of year we are at, I just don't see the W. Coast of FL being spared this time.
Another thing to consider is that models have a tougher time with tropical systems later in the season because the atmosphere is much more dynamic with stronger short-wave troughs and more pronounced Jet stream.
What this means is that these models may not pick up on these troughs until later in the forecast period. I would expect these models to shift more to the right over time.
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CHRISTY
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