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floridahurricaneguy
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#641 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:55 pm

attention others and rainband,

Ok you tell me if I am totally off.
Port Richey is only like 60-70 miles from cedar key. We could have the east side griding up pasco county as it heads that way. Wouldnt be good for us?

Matt
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#642 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:56 pm

at this point anything is possible.
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#643 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:57 pm

18z gfs coming in...take it with a grain of salt...

so far it only goes to Wednesday



Image
Last edited by Ivanhater on Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#644 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:57 pm

At this point it is a good bet this storm will hit the CONUS. Unless it goes into Central America.

Depending on how far West and North it gets will determine if it recurves into the Peninsula of Fl, Panhandle, or La/Ms/Al.
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#645 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:58 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:attention others and rainband,

Ok you tell me if I am totally off.
Port Richey is only like 60-70 miles from cedar key. We could have the east side griding up pasco county as it heads that way. Wouldnt be good for us?

Matt
Cedar Key is a lot further than that from me. Probably 150 miles or so :wink:
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#646 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:59 pm

103 miles :wink:
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#647 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:00 pm

thursday

Image
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#648 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:01 pm

By road?

Matt
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#649 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:03 pm

TS Zack wrote:At this point it is a good bet this storm will hit the CONUS. Unless it goes into Central America.

Depending on how far West and North it gets will determine if it recurves into the Peninsula of Fl, Panhandle, or La/Ms/Al.


We were sure that Michelle in 2001 would hit the western FL peninsula, but it moved more slowly than forecast and the recurve occurred south of Cuba. I wouldn't say a CONUS landfall is a good bet yet, not until it's moving.

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2001/MICHELLE/track.gif">
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#650 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:06 pm

ivanhater wrote:thursday

Image


Trend from 12Z-18Z at 84 hrs is slower movement and a faster moving trof across Texas. Signs that the 18Z GFS might shift east.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#651 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:09 pm

Image

friday
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#652 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:12 pm

Wow ! Real slow...hmmmm
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#653 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:13 pm

t numbers up again
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt
.1 a hour what is it picking up?
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#654 Postby Bgator » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:16 pm

cjrciadt wrote:t numbers up again
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt
.1 a hour what is it picking up?


What site do you get this from thanks!
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#655 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:16 pm

Trend from 12Z-18Z at 84 hrs is slower movement and a faster moving trof across Texas. Signs that the 18Z GFS might shift east.


Considering what time of year we are at, I just don't see the W. Coast of FL being spared this time.

Another thing to consider is that models have a tougher time with tropical systems later in the season because the atmosphere is much more dynamic with stronger short-wave troughs and more pronounced Jet stream.

What this means is that these models may not pick up on these troughs until later in the forecast period. I would expect these models to shift more to the right over time.
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CHRISTY

#656 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:17 pm

that slow movement its what is begining to get me concerned...cause my thinking is it may turn sooner?
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#657 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:20 pm

saturday

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#658 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:22 pm

Looks like the GFS has it hitting the Yucatan, in line with the NOGAPS.
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#659 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:22 pm

If it's not a TS it's very close. 1000.5 mb and 51kt T-numbers.
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#660 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:22 pm

CHRISTY wrote:that slow movement its what is begining to get me concerned...cause my thinking is it may turn sooner?


There's nothing to steer it north or northeast sooner. If it moves more slowly, it may miss the trof late this week and just move west into Mexico.
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