TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[floridahurricaneguy]

Interesting. I am thinking Ultimately trough pulls it into west florida I am thinking. Around Tampa!

Matt

[El Nino]

Which COULD be interesting too, is after the Tampa-landfall and crossing Florida, a re-strengthening near SC-coast and still a cat 1-2 hurricane heading to the Atlantic and arriving in Europe as a quite strong storm. Long way off though

[cycloneye]

t numbers up again
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt
.1 a hour what is it picking up?

From where you got this information? The last vortex that I posted was 1002 mbs and the plane is heading to base now so it is important that you say from where this information comes from.

[CHRISTY]

question!wont this turn depend on how fast its moving because if doesnt move faster like the NHC is calling then what happens??

[jhamps10]

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.

[gatorcane]

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.




Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First

I agree 100% with this track, you are right on.

[edbri871]

Sorry to sound rude. I don't normally post, only read. Being from Fort Myers Beach I am a little concerned. Having said this, its way too early to tell anything. It just gets on my nerves the way people misguide others by -removed-. The people in Tampa, say this is probably gonna be a tampa hit. The ones in south florida say its gonna hit south Fl. The members in the panhandle say it will hit them, and so on. I just find it so immature that some of you people consider yourselves knowledgable in this field when all you do is wishcast that the hurricane is coming for you.

Anywhere from The keys all the way to Alabama need to watch this, and really noone has more a chance then anyone else. The models will continue to flip flop over the next 5 days. It just amuses me that everyone says "its coming to my area", especially after all the damage we have see this year. Why do you want your local environment changed dramitcally, I know I love it here in Fort Myers Beach, and a hurricane would basically make a beautiful area a real mess, not to mention deaths and destruction.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.

Your landfall location is similar to that of the 18Z oct. 16 GFS
I REALLY hope that doesn't verify---man this is getting
really weird....

[Typhoon]

From where you got this information? The last recon vortex that I posted was 1002 mbs and they are heading back to base.

I think that member was referring to the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate, not any actual observations.

[gatorcane]

Many on this board that do not live in the Tampa Bay area (including me), believe it is a Tampa hit.

[jhamps10]

true, very true. Some people DO wishcast on here. I look at a good consis of models, and other posters info. I also agree that Pretty much the entire GOM from Mobile East needs to look at this closely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Many on this board that do not live in the Tampa Bay area (including me), believe it is a Tampa hit.

\

This is like some really weird dream

I am not panicky or anything- I feel really sleep-induced...

[floridahurricaneguy]

Sorry to sound rude. I don't normally post, only read. Being from Fort Myers Beach I am a little concerned. Having said this, its way too early to tell anything. It just gets on my nerves the way people misguide others by -removed-. The people in Tampa, say this is probably gonna be a tampa hit. The ones in south florida say its gonna hit south Fl. The members in the panhandle say it will hit them, and so on. I just find it so immature that some of you people consider yourselves knowledgable in this field when all you do is wishcast that the hurricane is coming for you.

Anywhere from The keys all the way to Alabama need to watch this, and really noone has more a chance then anyone else. The models will continue to flip flop over the next 5 days. It just amuses me that everyone says "its coming to my area", especially after all the damage we have see this year. Why do you want your local environment changed dramitcally, I know I love it here in Fort Myers Beach, and a hurricane would basically make a beautiful area a real mess, not to mention deaths and destruction.

Well I think your wrong and a lot ways. Not being rude either but there are smart people on here and some unsmart. A lot of us are making our forecast based off models. When the GFS ultimately seems to want keep bring it towards west florida then we are going to predict its going there. It would be dumb if models all have it hitting Pensacola to say oh its hitting Tampa. We go by research and models and forecast to the best of our ability.

Matt

[Stratosphere747]

true, very true. Some people DO wishcast on here. I look at a good consis of models, and other posters info. I also agree that Pretty much the entire GOM from Mobile East needs to look at this closely.

Why on earth would you forecast landfall at 155mph?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hate to say it, but the gfs synoptics favor a landfall too
close for comfort..things can change--- everyone from the
East-Central GOM to the FL Keys should watch closely..

[Brent]

-removed- is people who project the storm to hit where they live. When someone who doesn't live in Tampa Bay predicts a hit there, that is not -removed-.

[TS Zack]

Looking at the 18z GFS. It has to be way too slow or we better get used to Wilma because she will be around for the next 12 days.

So many things can change, she may die out by that time.

[Vortex]

Until we get a better sense of the players including a tight center with some movement then I believe were likely to play flip flop regarding the models. At best the most logical threat based on climatology would be Tampa south too the keys. BTW does anyone have the 12z ECMWF?

[bobbutts]

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Everyone be polite--- now's not the time for flaming
especially when a big storm could be in the cards...