Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[skysummit]

I'm being stubborn and still thinking the Big Bend area I know I'm wrong though so....yea, just south of Tampa. But....shhhh, I didn't say that.

[johngaltfla]

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Could probably evac to sturdy structures on the inland east coast....I understand because it will be a fast mover thru Fla it will maintain alot of its punch, but that also has its benefits.......we won't be under the sustained winds as long. I think it will be relatively safe here on the east coast.

Charley was moving 23 MPH...I think he left quire a mess as far as im concerened...

On the east coast?

Yes. I have family in Daytona Beach that was without power for 17 days. Roof damage unrepaired for 10 months.

Charley was much bigger than the media advertised. The damage in Central Florida is still there. I see it when I travel through Wachula and Avon Park to this day.

[CronkPSU]

Who still think more north shift? Anyone still?
just wondering

heck, i'll pretend I'm not -removed- and throw out the stronger storm, more movement poleward theory and say it hits north of ft myers

[THead]

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Could probably evac to sturdy structures on the inland east coast....I understand because it will be a fast mover thru Fla it will maintain alot of its punch, but that also has its benefits.......we won't be under the sustained winds as long. I think it will be relatively safe here on the east coast.

Charley was moving 23 MPH...I think he left quire a mess as far as im concerened...

On the east coast?

Yes. I have family in Daytona Beach that was without power for 17 days. Roof damage unrepaired for 10 months.

Charley was much bigger than the media advertised. The damage in Central Florida is still there. I see it when I travel through Wachula and Avon Park to this day.

Wow, I didn't realize there was that much damage in Daytona. I guess though if for a last resort, to get away from the coast its landfalling on, shoot across alligator alley and hole up with relatives or a hotel if one can be found.....

[gtalum]

The main concern for people in Tampa is to run from the surge. That's why I say find solid shelter on nearby high ground.

People generally aren't killed by wind damage.

[THead]

The main concern for people in Tampa is to run from the surge. That's why I say find solid shelter on nearby high ground.

People generally aren't killed by wind damage.

Exactly, my point too. 80 miles or so to the inland east coast, will be better than facing the surge threat and the higher winds at landfall. I'm in a sturdy, high spot here, not going anywhere.

[wxmann_91]

The main concern for people in Tampa is to run from the surge. That's why I say find solid shelter on nearby high ground.

People generally aren't killed by wind damage.

Exactly, my point too. 80 miles or so to the inland east coast, will be better than facing the surge threat and the higher winds at landfall. I'm in a sturdy, high spot here, not going anywhere.

6 people were killed in S Florida directly due to Cat 1 winds in Katrina.

[DESTRUCTION5]

When will we see models with the sampled air and Data includedand updated??

[Blown Away]

Have the models shifted S this evening, in paticular the GFDL??

[johngaltfla]

The main concern for people in Tampa is to run from the surge. That's why I say find solid shelter on nearby high ground.

People generally aren't killed by wind damage.

Tell that to the folks inland west of Homestead plastered by the dozens of tornadoes from Andrew.

You can not, and never should, predict the impact of these storms. Especially when they are bumping up against a cold front. We could see dozens plus or more tornadoes hundreds of miles from the eye.

Hurricanes in October are very, very dangerous.

[Bgator]

As we speak the last 2 frames the storm took a GOOD jog to the north, look for yourself(sry no link)!

[THead]

The main concern for people in Tampa is to run from the surge. That's why I say find solid shelter on nearby high ground.

People generally aren't killed by wind damage.

Exactly, my point too. 80 miles or so to the inland east coast, will be better than facing the surge threat and the higher winds at landfall. I'm in a sturdy, high spot here, not going anywhere.

6 people were killed in S Florida directly due to Cat 1 winds in Katrina.

Yeah, that's what happens in a populated area like this. Lets say you have Wilma, a Cat 4 bearing down on Naples, would you rather be there or in fort lauderdale? And you could get to Ft Laud in about an hour, if you decided to leave at or near the last minute.

[johngaltfla]

When will we see models with the sampled air and Data includedand updated??

Correct me if I'm wrong experts, but it will be the 0000Z run for 10/20 I think. It will take 4 hours to collect, sort and update the models. Too bad we can't run atmospheric collection samples over the Midwest to get exact readings on the lows....

[ericinmia]

Hmm... here is the New 00z NOGAPS from the rapid update site.
It hasn't run any further than this yet...

That has it going further into the gulf? at least so far...

<img src="http://www.197358246.com/chart-image.gif">

BTW... is there any way to NOT have the webpage ruin 'scrunch' every image?

[johngaltfla]

Hmm... here is the New 00z NOGAPS from the rapid update site.
It hasn't run any further than this yet...

That has it going further into the gulf? at least so far...

<img src="http://www.197358246.com/chart-image.gif">

BTW... is there any way to NOT have the webpage ruin 'scrunch' every image?

That model run is very, very, very, very depressing.

[Scorpion]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

[Bgator]

Hmm... here is the New 00z NOGAPS from the rapid update site.
It hasn't run any further than this yet...

That has it going further into the gulf? at least so far...

<img src="http://www.197358246.com/chart-image.gif">

BTW... is there any way to NOT have the webpage ruin 'scrunch' every image?

That doesnt look right can i have link!? and model should be out till 2am earliest!

[jkt21787]

Not necessarily. Let's wait for the run to finish first. It could hook SHARPLY to the right and still show Southern FL.

[floridahurricaneguy]

00z I think is whats going put tampa more at risk. Looking scary.

Matt

[n o o d l z]

I had a feeling this was coming...