Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[caneman]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

Not necessarily. This is the set up I and others owuld fear for a Tampa Bay landfall

[ericinmia]

That doesnt look right can i have link!? and model should be out till 2am earliest!

This rapid update site gets it MUCH sooner than anywhere else. It is the source.

It is a little hard to use for the novice though... and you can't direct link to most things. But its nice.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logi ... name=guest

[DESTRUCTION5]

NOGAPS = NOWAY People...

[Scorpion]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

Not necessarily. This is the set up I and others owuld fear for a Tampa Bay landfall

Yes it would be better news for South Florida, however my neck of the woods would still be in a bad position since I still get the worst part of the storm.

[jkt21787]

NOGAPS btw was also the model consistently taking it into the Yucatan and Central America and is generally not great. And again lets not predict the outcome based on one image...

[floridahurricaneguy]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

Not necessarily. This is the set up I and others owuld fear for a Tampa Bay landfall

Nhc's wording in 11pm made them seem not real uncomfortable with current path. Also new data for 00z for my synoptic set up or whatever its called.

Matt

[caneman]

NOGAPS btw was also the model consistently taking it into the Yucatan and Central America and is generally not great. And again lets not predict the outcome based on one image...

None but it is one piece of what I think will be a more Northerly landfall. We'll see what tomorrow holds.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

Not necessarily. This is the set up I and others owuld fear for a Tampa Bay landfall

Nhc's wording in 11pm made them seem not real uncomfortable with current path. Also new data for 00z for my synoptic set up or whatever its called.

Matt

This testing the air crap has not changed the path of either of the past 3 storms model wise..They were all Identical...

[THead]

That model run is good news.... means a more northern landfall point.

Not necessarily. This is the set up I and others owuld fear for a Tampa Bay landfall

Nhc's wording in 11pm made them seem not real uncomfortable with current path. Also new data for 00z for my synoptic set up or whatever its called.

Matt

They're never comfortable with the 5 day path, thats why its 400 miles wide!

[jhamps10]

from the 11PM discussion:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

That is scaring me like heck.

[ericinmia]

Ok... the upper air data has to have screwed up the model and given it a bias.

The 0z GFS is doing the same thing as the NOGAPS it appears. Albeit beginning to curve it...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

A lot of times the upper air data if flawed or tainted or if not complete can give a huge bias to the runs... i will need to see the 18z do the same as this for me to agree with it.
-Eric

[jkt21787]

Ok... the upper air data has to have screwed up the model and given it a bias.

The 0z GFS is doing the same thing as the NOGAPS it appears. Albeit beginning to curve it...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

A lot of times the upper air data if flawed or tainted or if not complete can give a huge bias to the runs... i will need to see the 18z do the same as this for me to agree with it.
-Eric

You make an excellent point. I really don't think all of the data was fed in and that could cause some error in the output, thus, it is wise for NO ONE to jump on WHATEVER the 0z models show, wait AT LEAST for the 12z if not the 18z output as well.

I went into this (and of course I'm unbiased on any of the output being where I'm located) not ready to trust any of the data immediately tonight, and its best for others to do the same. Wait it out and don't jump on these shifts.

No one jumped on the shifts to the Yucatan the models showed a few days ago. I think it will be interesting and revealing to see which, if any, members, jump on any shifts tonight.

[Bgator]

That doesnt look right can i have link!? and model should be out till 2am earliest!

This rapid update site gets it MUCH sooner than anywhere else. It is the source.

It is a little hard to use for the novice though... and you can't direct link to most things. But its nice.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logi ... name=guest

That one begins to curve it atleast i would like to wait one mor emodel run to see what happens =(18z)... They look like they are slowing the trof!

[n o o d l z]

Interesting...the GFS looks like its shifting a lot further west...we'll have to see the next few model runs though before thinking too much of it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That doesnt look right can i have link!? and model should be out till 2am earliest!

This rapid update site gets it MUCH sooner than anywhere else. It is the source.

It is a little hard to use for the novice though... and you can't direct link to most things. But its nice.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logi ... name=guest

That one begins to curve it atleast i would like to wait one mor emodel run to see what happens =(18z)... They look like they are slowing the trof!

Not to me...Looks like a Brutal Oct trough to say the least...

[Bgator]

That doesnt look right can i have link!? and model should be out till 2am earliest!

This rapid update site gets it MUCH sooner than anywhere else. It is the source.

It is a little hard to use for the novice though... and you can't direct link to most things. But its nice.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logi ... name=guest

That one begins to curve it atleast i would like to wait one mor emodel run to see what happens =(18z)... They look like they are slowing the trof!

Not to me...Looks like a Brutal Oct trough to say the least...

I didnt say it was weak i said it was slower to come across the USA!

[MortisFL]

The 00z GFS is slower this run...just emerging from the Yucatan passage into the GOM in 102 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry if thats not a cat4 right now. Then I don't know how one looks like.

[jkt21787]

The 00z GFS is slower this run...just emerging from the Yucatan passage into the GOM in 102 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Thats the 00z from LAST NIGHT

[Bgator]

The 00z GFS is slower this run...just emerging from the Yucatan passage into the GOM in 102 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

It looks like the GFS is turning it SHARP! but that slowness doesnt ssem plausible...