Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Scorpion]

12Z Euro about the same as before.

[Scorpion]

12Z Euro about the same as before.

[nequad]

No Friggin Way....MM5 is useless and this is just a major busted Run by the GFDL....Nothing has changed..

Well...blind faith one way or the other is useless. I'm just saying you can't automatically toss one solution.

[N2FSU]

Here is the 12Z (8am) run of the FSU MM5 out to 72 hrs:
Notice how it is still at the Yucatan Peninsula in 78 hrs and moving N or NNW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/WILMA.d1.movie.gif

[markymark8]

The GFDL WILL BE the model to watch for this one especially with the strength of Wilma. That is what this model was designed for. MAJOR HURRICANES!!! and that is why the NHC is closest to GFDL. It also worked very well with Katrina I might add. GFDL was not far off at all with her landfalls.

[caneman]

12Z Euro about the same as before.

Link please

[caneman]

12Z Euro about the same as before.

Link please

[N2FSU]

FSU MM5 out to 84 hrs now with a sharp NE turn south of Cuba.

[Zadok]

It looks like there might be a change coming up.

[tronbunny]

Here's a link to the FSU graphical repository for tropical models and their comparisons:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[Patrick99]

To my eye, it's just not gaining a whole lot of latitude. Maybe the models are catching something.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.

When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?

[TampaFl]

12Z Euro about the same as before.

Link please

Here you go:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

[mettski]

back down to 894mb according to the weather channel. ?

[tallywx]

The GFDL WILL BE the model to watch for this one especially with the strength of Wilma. That is what this model was designed for. MAJOR HURRICANES!!! and that is why the NHC is closest to GFDL. It also worked very well with Katrina I might add. GFDL was not far off at all with her landfalls.

But doesn't the fact that GFDL was 1000 miles different with its 120 hr position just one run ago mean that it's either grossly wrong now or was grossly incorrect then, meaning that there's a 100% probability that the GFDL was grossly incorrect, meaning that at times, the model should NOT be the one to watch?

[ronjon]

Blah, blah, blah...it's just one model run and no other globals are showing a similar stall and shift. When other models start to follow suit then I'd think we're on to something. I like the GFDL but after only one run...well...Now back to reality. The 12Z suite of models has shifted west and north from its previous one and the NHC track is now on the south side of guidance. If this model trend continues, look for the NHC to adjust their landfall on the west coast northward - say maybe Ft Myers or perhaps Punta Gorda, rather than Naples. We have some very good models now (NOGAPS, GFNI, GFDI, AVNI, CONU) that bring it further north along the coast. The UKMET, which had the storm going through the keys or straits has now shifted west and north to Ft Myers. All in all, not a major change, but one to watch for future trends.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[ronjon]

deleted double post - S2K is slowwwwwwwww today

[Kennethb]

To my eye, it's just not gaining a whole lot of latitude. Maybe the models are catching something.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.

When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?

I agree the models are too quick and are having a little trouble with such a strong storm and the ridge to the north. She appears to be making a wobbly, though steady track towards Mexico. I would not be surprised if she made it into Mexico, hung around and weakened and then as a weaker storm, finally a E to ENE trek and missed Florida.

[cjrciadt]

The models are trying to figure out where a sub900mb storm with a 2mile eye will head with a large front to its north. Now the latest she is still sub900mb with a one mile wide eye!!!!!!!

[Dave C]

You can see the "hollowing out" around the tiny eye(called a moat).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
Definately ready to open-up to a larger eye

[markymark8]

I just heard Mark Sudduth say that Recon isnt able to give us all real data readouts in all areas in the storm. Some is estimated because Recon is scared to go through all of the storm. winds are 240mph in some areas that the plane would have to fly through.