Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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Here is the 12Z (8am) run of the FSU MM5 out to 72 hrs:
Notice how it is still at the Yucatan Peninsula in 78 hrs and moving N or NNW.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/WILMA.d1.movie.gif
Notice how it is still at the Yucatan Peninsula in 78 hrs and moving N or NNW.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/WILMA.d1.movie.gif
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The GFDL WILL BE the model to watch for this one especially with the strength of Wilma. That is what this model was designed for. MAJOR HURRICANES!!! and that is why the NHC is closest to GFDL. It also worked very well with Katrina I might add. GFDL was not far off at all with her landfalls.
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Here's a link to the FSU graphical repository for tropical models and their comparisons:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
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To my eye, it's just not gaining a whole lot of latitude. Maybe the models are catching something.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.
When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?
If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.
When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?
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caneman wrote:Scorpion wrote:12Z Euro about the same as before.
Link please
Here you go:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/
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markymark8 wrote:The GFDL WILL BE the model to watch for this one especially with the strength of Wilma. That is what this model was designed for. MAJOR HURRICANES!!! and that is why the NHC is closest to GFDL. It also worked very well with Katrina I might add. GFDL was not far off at all with her landfalls.
But doesn't the fact that GFDL was 1000 miles different with its 120 hr position just one run ago mean that it's either grossly wrong now or was grossly incorrect then, meaning that there's a 100% probability that the GFDL was grossly incorrect, meaning that at times, the model should NOT be the one to watch?
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Blah, blah, blah...it's just one model run and no other globals are showing a similar stall and shift. When other models start to follow suit then I'd think we're on to something. I like the GFDL but after only one run...well...Now back to reality. The 12Z suite of models has shifted west and north from its previous one and the NHC track is now on the south side of guidance. If this model trend continues, look for the NHC to adjust their landfall on the west coast northward - say maybe Ft Myers or perhaps Punta Gorda, rather than Naples. We have some very good models now (NOGAPS, GFNI, GFDI, AVNI, CONU) that bring it further north along the coast. The UKMET, which had the storm going through the keys or straits has now shifted west and north to Ft Myers. All in all, not a major change, but one to watch for future trends.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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Patrick99 wrote:To my eye, it's just not gaining a whole lot of latitude. Maybe the models are catching something.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.
When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?
I agree the models are too quick and are having a little trouble with such a strong storm and the ridge to the north. She appears to be making a wobbly, though steady track towards Mexico. I would not be surprised if she made it into Mexico, hung around and weakened and then as a weaker storm, finally a E to ENE trek and missed Florida.
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hi
You can see the "hollowing out" around the tiny eye(called a moat).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
Definately ready to open-up to a larger eye
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
Definately ready to open-up to a larger eye
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