Anyone remember Saturday?

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al79philly
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Anyone remember Saturday?

#1 Postby al79philly » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:06 pm

GFDL called for 898 mb and 151 knots when Wilma was still a TD. Pretty good call - I just remembered thinking how crazy that sounded.
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LAwxrgal
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#2 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:07 pm

And she got even stronger!
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#3 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:09 pm

That was an awesome call by the GFDL. I thought it was on crack, but it proved me wrong.
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Canelaw99
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#4 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:13 pm

Yeah - we all thought it was high on something, and now we're hoping the same thing. We know how its first prediction turned out though.
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#5 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:50 pm

where had it predicted landfall? i'm curious now...
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#6 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:08 pm

tampaflwx wrote:where had it predicted landfall? i'm curious now...


Originally Tampa! So I am still worried just because were in the cone. Now wouldnt be creep if landfall ended up back were it orginally said.

Matt
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#7 Postby hicksta » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:14 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:
tampaflwx wrote:where had it predicted landfall? i'm curious now...


Originally Tampa! So I am still worried just because were in the cone. Now wouldnt be creep if landfall ended up back were it orginally said.

Matt


They tend to do that alot dont they.. Makes you mad.. IM SAFE!! o crap wait. WHAT!!!
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#8 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:35 pm

maybe we can learn a lesson for future hurricane forecasting...

we should run one model 7 days out, and base everything off of that. that way, there are no conflicting forecasts of landfall or intensity. it is just one concentrated, definite path.
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#9 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:36 pm

tampaflwx wrote:maybe we can learn a lesson for future hurricane forecasting...

we should run one model 7 days out, and base everything off of that. that way, there are no conflicting forecasts of landfall or intensity. it is just one concentrated, definite path.


No offense but sounds like a very unsmart thing to do. To many things can change 7 days out.

Matt
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#10 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:10 pm

tampaflwx wrote:we should run one model 7 days out, and base everything off of that. that way, there are no conflicting forecasts of landfall or intensity. it is just one concentrated, definite path.


What? No offense, but that is about the worst thing one could do to prepare for a storm. If we did that with Katrina, for which the models predicted a Big Bend Category 1 landfall 7 days out, tens of thousands would have died.
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#11 Postby nequad » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:31 pm

Well...just my 2 cent...but I've been following computer model guidance closely for the past ten years, and I often find that model runs 6-7 days out will often be correct, or closer to reality, than the guidance in the 4-5 day range. Not always the case for sure...but I've seen this happen many times.
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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#12 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:08 am

I remember that model map with Katrina mostly clustered on the Panhandle, except for that one outlier that went directly where Katrina ended up going.

Course now we've just jinxed it. No storm would allow itself to be predicted that well now while that we're expecting it to.
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