Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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- JtSmarts
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ronjon wrote:Wilma's eye is contracting on radar - she is getting stronger again - another wobble toward the N-NW too.
http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html
Thanks for posting, She does have an excellent radar presentation, looks like is on course to clip the northern part of Cozumel, then Cancun.
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I would not find it too unlikely to miss the land and stay in the yucatan channel. Remember that Charley found his way around Jamaica and how Katrina crossed Fla. in the everglades. Somehow the storms sometimes seem to know how to avoid the land that will disrupt their energy source. Just a thought.
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- skysummit
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mj wrote:I would not find it too unlikely to miss the land and stay in the yucatan channel. Remember that Charley found his way around Jamaica and how Katrina crossed Fla. in the everglades. Somehow the storms sometimes seem to know how to avoid the land that will disrupt their energy source. Just a thought.
Especially with Wilma's big eye. She can probably see the land a lot easier



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JtSmarts wrote:ronjon wrote:Wilma's eye is contracting on radar - she is getting stronger again - another wobble toward the N-NW too.
http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html
Thanks for posting, She does have an excellent radar presentation, looks like is on course to clip the northern part of Cozumel, then Cancun.
IMO, I think that the eyewall is contracting, and it could get to cat. 5 by the 11PM adv. if not then, then most certainly by the 2AM adv. Also, I think that the eye wall could just BARLEY make landfall at Cancun.
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jkt21787 wrote:I'm seeing decaying convection on the west side. Not sure why everyone is going for cat 5 now, but the sat trends do not lie, and they don't show much in way of further intensification at this time. I'd have to imagine the western eyewall is open.
Everyone should watch a loop of the IR and/or WV of Wilma - there is shear impacting the western side of the storm, acting to keep the western semicircle less convectively active than the east. JKT is right, there isn't much room left for intensification unless the shear (which appears to be significant) abates.
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PurdueWx80 wrote:jkt21787 wrote:I'm seeing decaying convection on the west side. Not sure why everyone is going for cat 5 now, but the sat trends do not lie, and they don't show much in way of further intensification at this time. I'd have to imagine the western eyewall is open.
Everyone should watch a loop of the IR and/or WV of Wilma - there is shear impacting the western side of the storm, acting to keep the western semicircle less convectively active than the east. JKT is right, there isn't much room left for intensification unless the shear (which appears to be significant) abates.
Even still, the sat appearance now is better than is was.
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- milankovitch
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jkt21787 wrote:artist wrote:jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.
Whether the eyewall is open or not, Purdue agrees with me and is believeing shear is impacting the storm. As he said, time is almost up for this to strengthen.
Nevertheless, she is looking better than she has all day long.
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- wxmann_91
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jkt21787 wrote:artist wrote:jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.
Whether the eyewall is open or not, Purdue agrees with me and is believeing shear is impacting the storm. As he said, time is almost up for this to strengthen.
It's got 12 hours. Not saying this will happen again, but remember Wilma strengthened over 60 mb in 12 hours. The UL anticyclone is displaced just to the west enough to provide some VERY LIGHT westerly shear and dry air into the western edges, but you must look at the shear charts - <5 kt of shear over the eye of Wilma. Don't see how that once the ERC ends, strengthening will not begin.
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