Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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cmdebbie
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#2141 Postby cmdebbie » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:46 pm

Wow, two weeks ago I was standing in the exact spot that picture was taken (in Grand Cayman). Unbelievable! Looks quite different now.
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#2142 Postby tampastorm » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:47 pm

I still think there is a possibility Wilma misses the Yucatan altogether, will be a close call. Wobble to the north occuring now. IMO
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#2143 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:48 pm

ronjon wrote:Wilma's eye is contracting on radar - she is getting stronger again - another wobble toward the N-NW too.


http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html


Thanks for posting, She does have an excellent radar presentation, looks like is on course to clip the northern part of Cozumel, then Cancun.
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#2144 Postby mj » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:55 pm

I would not find it too unlikely to miss the land and stay in the yucatan channel. Remember that Charley found his way around Jamaica and how Katrina crossed Fla. in the everglades. Somehow the storms sometimes seem to know how to avoid the land that will disrupt their energy source. Just a thought.
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#2145 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:56 pm

mj wrote:I would not find it too unlikely to miss the land and stay in the yucatan channel. Remember that Charley found his way around Jamaica and how Katrina crossed Fla. in the everglades. Somehow the storms sometimes seem to know how to avoid the land that will disrupt their energy source. Just a thought.


Especially with Wilma's big eye. She can probably see the land a lot easier :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#2146 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:58 pm

wow it is going to be real close whether it hits land or not...still way too close to not have MAJOR damage to the Yucatan
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#2147 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:59 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
ronjon wrote:Wilma's eye is contracting on radar - she is getting stronger again - another wobble toward the N-NW too.


http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html


Thanks for posting, She does have an excellent radar presentation, looks like is on course to clip the northern part of Cozumel, then Cancun.


IMO, I think that the eyewall is contracting, and it could get to cat. 5 by the 11PM adv. if not then, then most certainly by the 2AM adv. Also, I think that the eye wall could just BARLEY make landfall at Cancun.
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#2148 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:01 pm

I'm seeing decaying convection on the west side. Not sure why everyone is going for cat 5 now, but the sat trends do not lie, and they don't show much in way of further intensification at this time. I'd have to imagine the western eyewall is open.
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#2149 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:03 pm

jkt21787 wrote:I'm seeing decaying convection on the west side. Not sure why everyone is going for cat 5 now, but the sat trends do not lie, and they don't show much in way of further intensification at this time. I'd have to imagine the western eyewall is open.


Everyone should watch a loop of the IR and/or WV of Wilma - there is shear impacting the western side of the storm, acting to keep the western semicircle less convectively active than the east. JKT is right, there isn't much room left for intensification unless the shear (which appears to be significant) abates.
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#2150 Postby artist » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:05 pm

jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.
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#2151 Postby Normandy » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:05 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:I'm seeing decaying convection on the west side. Not sure why everyone is going for cat 5 now, but the sat trends do not lie, and they don't show much in way of further intensification at this time. I'd have to imagine the western eyewall is open.


Everyone should watch a loop of the IR and/or WV of Wilma - there is shear impacting the western side of the storm, acting to keep the western semicircle less convectively active than the east. JKT is right, there isn't much room left for intensification unless the shear (which appears to be significant) abates.


Even still, the sat appearance now is better than is was.
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#2152 Postby milankovitch » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:06 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shrZ.html

Shear down a tad from earlier today.
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#2153 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:07 pm

artist wrote:jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.

Whether the eyewall is open or not, Purdue agrees with me and is believeing shear is impacting the storm. As he said, time is almost up for this to strengthen.
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#2154 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:07 pm

you sure it is shear and not interaction with land???
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#2155 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:08 pm

Image
latest windfield.
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#2156 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:09 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
artist wrote:jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.

Whether the eyewall is open or not, Purdue agrees with me and is believeing shear is impacting the storm. As he said, time is almost up for this to strengthen.


Nevertheless, she is looking better than she has all day long.
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Normandy
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#2157 Postby Normandy » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:09 pm

Oh my god.
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#2158 Postby Normandy » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:09 pm

Oh my god.
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#2159 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:10 pm

Normandy wrote:Oh my god.

What? Please don't tell me you are going to disagree with me. I have a pro (who is very good and quite respected) on my side...
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#2160 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:10 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
artist wrote:jkt - according to radar the eyewall is closed and looks very good.

Whether the eyewall is open or not, Purdue agrees with me and is believeing shear is impacting the storm. As he said, time is almost up for this to strengthen.


It's got 12 hours. Not saying this will happen again, but remember Wilma strengthened over 60 mb in 12 hours. The UL anticyclone is displaced just to the west enough to provide some VERY LIGHT westerly shear and dry air into the western edges, but you must look at the shear charts - <5 kt of shear over the eye of Wilma. Don't see how that once the ERC ends, strengthening will not begin.
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