Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2241 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:15 pm

The cold cloud tops are wraping...In the eye looks like Katrina's. I expect that recon will find it to have droped below 910 millibars with 165 mph winds.

She the cloud tops are warmer on the western side. But this looks like Katrina.
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#2242 Postby mahicks » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:15 pm

CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...



Yes, but most importantly, wouldn't this affect the forecast track greatly??
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#2243 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:16 pm

CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...


Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula
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#2244 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:16 pm

thought someone posted that shear has lessened in the GOM
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caneman

#2245 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:canenam yes it all depends on how strong Wilma arrives at Florida if Wilma goes inland over the Yucatan or not and the discussion talked about a possibility that what the gulfstream jet informed with it's data possibly Wilma may not get inland at the Yucatan.


yea, it hasn't looked like it would and I don't buy the stall. Seems like NHC is too heavily relying on the GFDL which isn't doing well. I'm just concerned that one model may be skewing where the system may actually go.
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#2246 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:17 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Discussion is disturbing for FL as it states Major Cane possible..

It would have to miss the Yucatan or just barely graze it for a few hours or less for this to have any real chance of verifying, and this is looking more and more unlikely.


are you looking at the same radar loops I am?

http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

sure looks like it will barely brush the yucatan to me

This is an interesting radar loop, which admittedly I haven't looked it. Could definitely be close either way.

No matter what occurs, the radar clearly shows me that Cancun, Cozumel, and the Northeast Yucatan should be in all our prayers tonight...
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Derek Ortt

#2247 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:17 pm

looking at the satellite imageyr, it does NOT appear that Wilma is intensifying, due to the erosion of the western portion of the cane. If I had to do a Dvorak, I'd say this is a 6.0/6.5 The western erosion may prevent this from re-attaining cat 5
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caneman

#2248 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:18 pm

CronkPSU wrote:thought someone posted that shear has lessened in the GOM

A little stronger around 26 and North but that too could lessen and the storm may not make it that far North.
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#2249 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:looking at the satellite imageyr, it does NOT appear that Wilma is intensifying, due to the erosion of the western portion of the cane. If I had to do a Dvorak, I'd say this is a 6.0/6.5 The western erosion may prevent this from re-attaining cat 5


good call purdue and jkt on the western erosion

THANK YOU, you're the man Derek
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#2250 Postby flnative » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:19 pm

Derek, please talk to those of us in Florida about the track given the 11 pm discussion.
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#2251 Postby THead » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:20 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...


Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula


From the 11pm discussion:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT
COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
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#2252 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:20 pm

jkt21787 wrote:No matter what occurs, the radar clearly shows me that Cancun, Cozumel, and the Northeast Yucatan should be in all our prayers tonight...


most definitely :cry:
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#2253 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:21 pm

I think that she was back above 155 for a brief period (2-3 frames back,
core circled in red), but the shear is indeed eroding again. Only time
will tell and as I said, it's a moot point. A 4 or 5 will level the area.
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#2254 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:21 pm

Actually, in the last few frames it appears as though Wilma was able to keep the dry air out of her core circulation and is now taking on th 'appearance' of an annular hurricane.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2255 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:22 pm

The western side of the wall is a little warmer then the rise of the storm. The eye has sharpen out in the pressure is likely going down. 8 knots is all that it need to gain earlier today. I expect it to inch it out.
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#2256 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:23 pm

Katrina at 160mph on the left, and Wilma at 150mph on the right.

Image Image
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#2257 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:24 pm

skysummit wrote:Katrina at 160mph on the left, and Wilma at 150mph on the right.

Image Image


Both have a poleward look to me...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2258 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:24 pm

Wilma has colder cloud tops...
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#2259 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:26 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wilma has colder cloud tops...

but the western side is highly eroded. The two images clearly show this point well. This should prevent cat 5 again. But I really don't want to focus on that, because this is still about as bad as you can get.
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#2260 Postby THead » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:27 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wilma has colder cloud tops...

but the western side is highly eroded. The two images clearly show this point well. This should prevent cat 5 again. But I really don't want to focus on that, because this is still about as bad as you can get.


Yeah, its a good thing she's getting sheared a bit, or it looks like she coulda really bombed again.
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