Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...
Yes, but most importantly, wouldn't this affect the forecast track greatly??
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CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...
Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula
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cycloneye wrote:canenam yes it all depends on how strong Wilma arrives at Florida if Wilma goes inland over the Yucatan or not and the discussion talked about a possibility that what the gulfstream jet informed with it's data possibly Wilma may not get inland at the Yucatan.
yea, it hasn't looked like it would and I don't buy the stall. Seems like NHC is too heavily relying on the GFDL which isn't doing well. I'm just concerned that one model may be skewing where the system may actually go.
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CronkPSU wrote:jkt21787 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Discussion is disturbing for FL as it states Major Cane possible..
It would have to miss the Yucatan or just barely graze it for a few hours or less for this to have any real chance of verifying, and this is looking more and more unlikely.
are you looking at the same radar loops I am?
http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html
sure looks like it will barely brush the yucatan to me
This is an interesting radar loop, which admittedly I haven't looked it. Could definitely be close either way.
No matter what occurs, the radar clearly shows me that Cancun, Cozumel, and the Northeast Yucatan should be in all our prayers tonight...
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Derek Ortt wrote:looking at the satellite imageyr, it does NOT appear that Wilma is intensifying, due to the erosion of the western portion of the cane. If I had to do a Dvorak, I'd say this is a 6.0/6.5 The western erosion may prevent this from re-attaining cat 5
good call purdue and jkt on the western erosion
THANK YOU, you're the man Derek
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6SpeedTA95 wrote:CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...
Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula
From the 11pm discussion:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT
COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
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jkt21787 wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wilma has colder cloud tops...
but the western side is highly eroded. The two images clearly show this point well. This should prevent cat 5 again. But I really don't want to focus on that, because this is still about as bad as you can get.
Yeah, its a good thing she's getting sheared a bit, or it looks like she coulda really bombed again.
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