Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

My prediction is that Wilma is going to be torn apart -- a victim of the people living to the north pulling her north and the people living to the south pulling her south :p

You can tell by the elongation to the North, that the Tampa people are pulling MUCH harder then the south!! Although we do have Christy on our side.......j/k

[gtalum]

One tenth of a degree = 6 miles, so Wilma has moved 18 miles north and 12 miles east in 3 hours. So it has moved more north than east, or IMHO NE if you extrapolate it out.. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Check those numebrs again. You may or may not be right about the (0.1 degree = 6 miles). However she moved 0.3 degrees north and 0.5 degrees east. She's moving somewhat E of due NE.

[Brent]

Steve Lyons just said that the inner core is weakening and it wont be a major cane at landfall at the most a moderate cat 2 to a strong cat 1.

Man I hope Dr. Lyons is right!!!!

I don't care for TWC. Didn't they keep saying Charily was going into Tampa?
I don't but much trust in them Sorry. But that is just what think. But who knows he might be right.

I think he's right. Something dramatic is going to have to happen today for her to become a major hurricane again. A strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 is bad enough though...

[TampaFl]

5am EDT 22.1 86.6
8am EDT 22.4 86.1

More east than north

One tenth of a degree = 6 miles, so Wilma has moved 18 miles north and 12 miles east in 3 hours. So it has moved more north than east, or IMHO NE if you extrapolate it out.. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

Better check that over again....I know i'm seeing double, but that does not compute.

Correction, Wilma has moved 18 miles to the north (22.1 to 22.4 = .3N), and 30 miles to the east (86.6 to 86.1 = .5W). So it has moved east of north over the last three hours.

I stand corrected. Thanks Thead for bring that to my attention. Need to reload on another cup of coffee (brain not fully awake yet )

[LanceW]

One tenth of a degree = 6 miles, so Wilma has moved 18 miles north and 12 miles east in 3 hours. So it has moved more north than east, or IMHO NE if you extrapolate it out.. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Check those numebrs again. You may or may not be right about the (0.1 degree = 6 miles). However she moved 0.3 degrees north and 0.5 degrees east. She's moving somewhat E of due NE.

I came up with movement of 6NM at a heading of about 57 degrees, close to ENE. Now, 1 hour does not a pattern make. So, more east than north, but not by much. This is nit-picking, watch the trends. (WOW, I have learned something here..)

Edit: I used 22:00:58N 86:06:01W and 22:03:58N 86:01:01W as the original co-ordinates.

[cycloneye]

If a cat 2 or cat 1 makes landfall it will not be a piece of cake although the good news is that it will move out quickly and the effects will not be felt for many hours like what the Yucatan experienced.The only thing to do is to be prepared for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best outcome for all of the Florida Penninsula.

[Tiny]

My prediction is that Wilma is going to be torn apart -- a victim of the people living to the north pulling her north and the people living to the south pulling her south :p

You can tell by the elongation to the North, that the Tampa people are pulling MUCH harder then the south!! Although we do have Christy on our side.......j/k

LOL! Hey I'm in Naples. You all need to tug harder to tear this thing up!!!

[theworld]

Interesting how those Reds are being pulled down closer to the center.

[caneman]

If a cat 2 or cat 1 makes landfall it will not be a piece of cake although the good news is that it will move out quickly and the effects will not be felt for many hours like what the Yucatan experienced.The only thing to do is to be prepared for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best outcome for all of the Florida Penninsula.

I agree wtih Dr. Lyons it does lok like her inner core is unraveling. Unless she ramps up soon she'll likely be just a minimum Cat. 1 at landfall. Also looks back more on a NNE or NE movement and really seems to have picked up speed. Looks like the front has lifted some and still expect landfall around Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.

[Jevo]

My prediction is that Wilma is going to be torn apart -- a victim of the people living to the north pulling her north and the people living to the south pulling her south :p

LOL yeah Ive gone back to look at a few pages.. most landfall predictions coencide with the posters location under their name..

Should start to get interesting

[TampaFl]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

Looking at the steering currents right now, I see a steeper angle through the state than the forecast calls for. I see Wima entering between Naples and Sarasota and exiting Melbourne to Daytona. Unless these steering currents change, I don't see a more southern trek that the models are calling for.

Agree Stormy 1959. Based on Wilma's current pressure of 961MB here is the current steering flow.:

Can you go more in depth what you see here and why? thanks

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am no meteorologist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night

If you look at the map, there is a small trof located north of Wilma just south of the Central Gulf Coast and a large ridge east of Florida. The current steering flow over Florida is from south to north according to the map. IMHO, based on this and current sattilite showing Wilma elongated NNe , not NE to ENE. IMHO I would think that a track between NE & NNE for today would seem correct. But this is just speculation as I am sure there is more to it. Check out Nexrads morning update in the Tropical Anatysis fourm for a better explanation of all this. Like I said just my opinion. Other thoughts and comments are greatly appreciated.

Robert

[Tiny]

[quote="TampaFl

I am no meteorologist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night

Robert

[/quote]
LOL

[wxwatcher2]

Such good sound info being bantied about this morning.

Best quote of the season was the being pulled apart by the Tampa folks vs the South Florida folks pulling on Wilma. Hillarious.

Unless Wilma turns more toward the NNE, it looks like the Naples forecast is a good one.
My prediction is a Cat 1 at landfall. Florida gets off fairly easy with Wilma.

[FlaNativeMom]

My prediction is that Wilma is going to be torn apart -- a victim of the people living to the north pulling her north and the people living to the south pulling her south :p

How true! Guess with this being (fingers crossed) the last hurricane of the season, possibly last chance for excitement for some. I've been watching this in quiet amazement for days now. Hillarious way to express what I've been thinking!
<<<"NORTH!" "SOUTH!" "NORTH!" "SOUTH!"

[HURAKAN]

My prediction is that Wilma is going to be torn apart -- a victim of the people living to the north pulling her north and the people living to the south pulling her south :p

How true! Guess with this being (fingers crossed) the last hurricane of the season, possibly last chance for excitement for some. I've been watching this in quiet amazement for days now. Hillarious way to express what I've been thinking!
<<<"NORTH!" "SOUTH!" "NORTH!" "SOUTH!"

I think it's more like ...

NORTH! EAST! NORTH! EAST!

[O Town]

What is the shear doing right now? Can someone post a shear map, please.

[TampaFl]

Such good sound info being bantied about this morning.

Best quote of the season was the being pulled apart by the Tampa folks vs the South Florida folks pulling on Wilma. Hillarious.

Unless Wilma turns more toward the NNE, it looks like the Naples forecast is a good one.
My prediction is a Cat 1 at landfall. Florida gets off fairly easy with Wilma.

Yeah, the wife and cats are still asleep, so who better to hang out with than my extended family here at Storm2K, along with a good cup of coffee. You are most likely correct on the Naples landfall.

Robert

[Jevo]

Ok so I know where it wont go...... looks like the leading storms in front of the trough sliding across central FL

[ericinmia]

What is the shear doing right now? Can someone post a shear map, please.

[skysummit]

What is the shear doing right now? Can someone post a shear map, please.

The shear is on the increase across central Florida.