Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

963 mb. Steady for all intents and purposes.

In fact, the pressure has risen a bit....

It's down 1 mb from the last vortex about an hour and a half ago(964 mb).

[6SpeedTA95]

URNT12 KNHC 231650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:34:30Z
B. 22 deg 54 min N
085 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2788 m
D. 65 kt
E. 45 deg 089 nm
F. 140 deg 080 kt
G. 045 deg 097 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 12 C/ 3041 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 15:35:30
INNER EYEWALL STILL DEVELOPING - OPEN WEST. OUTER EYEWALL IS CLOSED.

[El Nino]

What is interesting is that band od deep convection between Wilma and the FL coast. It seems there's a good potentiel for strenghtening over there when Wilma will pass over. Definitely something to watch out for Floridians. Still surprises to come I think ...

[6SpeedTA95]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

[O Town]

Rut ro. Looks like the inner eye wall is developing, tightening up. More cold cloud tops as well.

[Innotech]

Last night there was a post that had a little cartoon of a person in front of a computer going crazy and eventually killing him self...Does anyone no where that post is..

[johngaltfla]

Wow, the GFS really intensifies this thing before landfall.

And that track is a bit discomforting.

[O Town]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow, the GFS really intensifies this thing before landfall.

And that track is a bit discomforting.

REASON IM ASKING ABOUT THE UPDATES FOR THIS MODEL IS BECAUSE THIER USUALLY RIGHT ON 24-48 HRS OUT...

[theworld]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.

Agreed. I came to this forum (yeah i'm a newbee) to learn how to read sats much better. This is not sensationalism. The only way to learn is to watch closely.

Her slow buy clear eye development, go to http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hurvv_nt4.gif and save it to you PC and change the Levels/Gama and take a peek.

[WxGuy1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.

I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

LOL i'm so burnt out it wouldn't scare me if wilma blew up and
headed north of path---> I am not saying that I think this will happen,
just that I'm too burnt out to care if it did

Now I am prepared for the worst with all my supplies- but still burnt out
from days of tracking this crazy Wilma.

[jkt21787]

96 kts found

[THead]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.

I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.

There's a handful saying she is falling apart too, so find the middle ground I guess, watch the data as you say.

[6SpeedTA95]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.

I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.

Thats the only point I was trying to make, some folks make these wild claims and assumptions and yet when you ask for data to backup their claims it doesn't exist. So some red popped up, thats expected in a strengthening storm, that doesn't mean its fixing to bounc up to a cat4 or 5.

I also think we're all hurricane fatigued. We've been watching this storm for a week now.

[JtSmarts]

96 kts found

Supports 85 kts at the surface, she is slowly/steadily inching upwards in strength.

[ronibaida]

Does anyone see an eye forming?

[fasterdisaster]

96 kts found

Supports 85 kts at the surface, she is slowly/steadily inching upwards in strength.

Now Wilma actually IS 100 mph.

[DrStorm]

Some folks use the emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario.

Really! Nothing screams armaggedon like a cute bug eyed icon!

[calculatedrisk]

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 86.1 45./ 7.0
6 23.1 85.7 33./ 8.3
12 23.8 84.7 56./10.7
18 24.5 83.6 55./13.2
24 25.6 81.8 59./19.2
30 27.0 79.7 56./23.8
36 29.2 76.9 52./32.8
42 32.4 73.7 44./41.9
48 36.8 70.2 38./52.4
54 40.8 66.7 42./48.6
60 43.5 64.1 44./33.5
66 45.7 63.0 25./22.9
72 47.5 63.1 358./17.6
78 49.0 63.4 347./15.8
84 49.1 63.9 276./ 3.2
90 48.6 63.2 124./ 6.9
96 48.5 60.9 92./15.3
102 48.8 58.0 85./18.8
108 49.6 54.5 76./24.5
114 49.6 52.5 92./12.9
120 49.2 50.2 98./15.6