Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Brent
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#4501 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:57 am

k-man wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:963 mb. Steady for all intents and purposes.


In fact, the pressure has risen a bit....


It's down 1 mb from the last vortex about an hour and a half ago(964 mb).
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#4502 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:02 pm

URNT12 KNHC 231650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:34:30Z
B. 22 deg 54 min N
085 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2788 m
D. 65 kt
E. 45 deg 089 nm
F. 140 deg 080 kt
G. 045 deg 097 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 12 C/ 3041 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 15:35:30
INNER EYEWALL STILL DEVELOPING - OPEN WEST. OUTER EYEWALL IS CLOSED.
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#4503 Postby El Nino » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:04 pm

What is interesting is that band od deep convection between Wilma and the FL coast. It seems there's a good potentiel for strenghtening over there when Wilma will pass over. Definitely something to watch out for Floridians. Still surprises to come I think ...
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#4504 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:05 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?
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#4505 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:05 pm

Rut ro. Looks like the inner eye wall is developing, tightening up. More cold cloud tops as well.

Image
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#4506 Postby Innotech » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:08 pm

feederband wrote:Last night there was a post that had a little cartoon of a person in front of a computer going crazy and eventually killing him self...Does anyone no where that post is..


Image
Last edited by Innotech on Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4507 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:08 pm

Scorpion wrote:Wow, the GFS really intensifies this thing before landfall.


And that track is a bit discomforting. :eek:
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#4508 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:09 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.
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#4509 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:10 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Wow, the GFS really intensifies this thing before landfall.


And that track is a bit discomforting. :eek:


REASON IM ASKING ABOUT THE UPDATES FOR THIS MODEL IS BECAUSE THIER USUALLY RIGHT ON 24-48 HRS OUT...
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#4510 Postby theworld » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:16 pm

O Town wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.


Agreed. I came to this forum (yeah i'm a newbee) to learn how to read sats much better. This is not sensationalism. The only way to learn is to watch closely.

Her slow buy clear eye development, go to http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hurvv_nt4.gif and save it to you PC and change the Levels/Gama and take a peek.
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#4511 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:17 pm

O Town wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.


I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the :eek: emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.
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#4512 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:20 pm

LOL i'm so burnt out it wouldn't scare me if wilma blew up and
headed north of path---> I am not saying that I think this will happen,
just that I'm too burnt out to care if it did :lol:

Now I am prepared for the worst with all my supplies- but still burnt out
from days of tracking this crazy Wilma.
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#4513 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:22 pm

96 kts found
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#4514 Postby THead » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:23 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
O Town wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.


I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the :eek: emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.


There's a handful saying she is falling apart too, so find the middle ground I guess, watch the data as you say.
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#4515 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:24 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
O Town wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Lots of folks keep talking about how good the storm is looking, sorry its not. Is it getting better? Sure...but the thing isn't blowing up its slowly organizing, why all the sensationalism?

Because we were not sure if this thing would would stengthen quickly, or not at all. It was forcasted to strengthen slowly, but I don't think alot of us were so sure. I don't think it is being sensationalized at all. Thats why the forum is here. To hear what everyone is thinking.


I disagree... There are a handful of folks on here who have been adamant of rapid strengthening or "Cat 4 easily" intensity. Some folks use the :eek: emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario. Of course there are different opinions, and I certainly can't guarantee that my forecast is better than someone else's, but I do think some people aren't presenting their case using actual data and thus seem to be forecasting based on a hunch or 'gut feeling', which is quite ill-advised.


Thats the only point I was trying to make, some folks make these wild claims and assumptions and yet when you ask for data to backup their claims it doesn't exist. So some red popped up, thats expected in a strengthening storm, that doesn't mean its fixing to bounc up to a cat4 or 5.

I also think we're all hurricane fatigued. We've been watching this storm for a week now.
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#4516 Postby JtSmarts » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:24 pm

jkt21787 wrote:96 kts found


Supports 85 kts at the surface, she is slowly/steadily inching upwards in strength.
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#4517 Postby ronibaida » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:25 pm

Does anyone see an eye forming?
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#4518 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:26 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:96 kts found


Supports 85 kts at the surface, she is slowly/steadily inching upwards in strength.


Now Wilma actually IS 100 mph.
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#4519 Postby DrStorm » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:31 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:Some folks use the :eek: emoticon in every post, and seem to imply that Wilma's rapidly strengthening each time a dark red or grey pixel shows on their satellite image. I don't really care if folks are reasonable or not, but it certainly doesn't give credit to the board to have folks who continue to play an armaggedon scenario.


Really! Nothing screams armaggedon like a cute bug eyed icon!
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#4520 Postby calculatedrisk » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:31 pm

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 86.1 45./ 7.0
6 23.1 85.7 33./ 8.3
12 23.8 84.7 56./10.7
18 24.5 83.6 55./13.2
24 25.6 81.8 59./19.2
30 27.0 79.7 56./23.8
36 29.2 76.9 52./32.8
42 32.4 73.7 44./41.9
48 36.8 70.2 38./52.4
54 40.8 66.7 42./48.6
60 43.5 64.1 44./33.5
66 45.7 63.0 25./22.9
72 47.5 63.1 358./17.6
78 49.0 63.4 347./15.8
84 49.1 63.9 276./ 3.2
90 48.6 63.2 124./ 6.9
96 48.5 60.9 92./15.3
102 48.8 58.0 85./18.8
108 49.6 54.5 76./24.5
114 49.6 52.5 92./12.9
120 49.2 50.2 98./15.6
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