#72 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:38 am
The tropical wave over the Central Atlantic has become better defined over the past 12-24 hours. This comes to no surprise given the fact that the upper conditions have been gradually improving over the past couple of days, just as forecast by the GFS. Conditions in the upper-levels will continue to improve with a more pronounced upper-level high developing near the system in 1-2 days, as the upper-low seen on water vapor imagery retreats.
The only main negative factor that I see is drier air in the mid-levels surrounding it, particularly to its NE. This is quite common beneath a very strong ridge of high pressure at the surface. If it manages to re-fire stronger convection (-70C+) during the next 24 hours, it should be able to keep the drier air from entraining it.
Unfortunately, we can only hope for the drier air to keep it in check because given the favorable atmospheric environment developing and a fairly well-defined swirl of low pressure embedded in it near 12.5N, 51W, this one must be carefully watched for potential organization as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Tasking a reconaissance plane to possibly investigate the system two days from now, when it is not even being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook, should raise eyebrows in regards to this wave's potential.
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