Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[cycloneye]

The new TWO now mentions nothing about this wave.

[Hyperstorm]

Don't be so quick to dismiss it. The tropical wave does not seem to have as well of a structure as it had over the past 24-48 hours, but it must be monitored.

Why?

Atmospheric conditions have improved a little since yesterday just as forecast by the models. They are expected to continue to improve during the next couple of days with a more easterly flow instead of the now northerly flow, and opposite to yesterday's westerly flow.

It will all depend on the wave wanting to benefit from the more favorable atmosphere or not.

BTW, that large upper ridge over the eastern Atlantic is quite unusual for this time of year. It's very impressive to see that area so "clean". Normally you see in late October HUGE troughs of low pressure digging southward and squashing any tropical waves, which keeps them from traversing the Atlantic. This year, we continue to see the tropical waves march westward with no major impediments.

2005...

[boca]

Hyperstorm where did you get that Avatar its great?

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm where did you get that Avatar its great?

Thanks, Boca. I found it a while back when I was browsing a weather site. Even though it's hardly noticeable, you can see a little bit of last year's Ivan hitting Florida and Alabama, as well as Jeanne hitting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas and later Florida. You can also see the developments of Karl and Lisa in the Atlantic. It's been there a while, so it might be replaced soon.

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A WELL-DEFINED AND ALMOST CIRCULAR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND IT ALMOST APPEARS THAT A WEAK LOW
COULD BE CENTERED NEAR 12N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN A SMALL AREA NW OF THE LOW FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
44W-48W.


Wave is not completly dead as you can read from the 8 PM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

A little flareup of this wave but it has to contend with an upper low in front of it as water vapor pic shows.

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. A WELL-DEFINED AND ALMOST CIRCULAR LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISPLACED WEST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-51W.

8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
15N AND 61W FOR 31/1800Z.


Plan of the day of today at the end says the above.For Halloween day in the afternoon possible recon for the wave.If the organization of this wave continues to improve invest 92L may not be far away from being up at NRL.

[CHRISTY]

were is this area??

[jkt21787]

were is this area??

Its out east of the Lesser Antilles, that furthest right flare up in the image above. I can't believe they are thinking of sending recon to it, it has a lot more organization to go.

[OURAGAN]

The upper low in front of it is moving west and the shear is decreasing more and more hour by hour as the wave moves west in tandem.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave over the Central Atlantic has become better defined over the past 12-24 hours. This comes to no surprise given the fact that the upper conditions have been gradually improving over the past couple of days, just as forecast by the GFS. Conditions in the upper-levels will continue to improve with a more pronounced upper-level high developing near the system in 1-2 days, as the upper-low seen on water vapor imagery retreats.

The only main negative factor that I see is drier air in the mid-levels surrounding it, particularly to its NE. This is quite common beneath a very strong ridge of high pressure at the surface. If it manages to re-fire stronger convection (-70C+) during the next 24 hours, it should be able to keep the drier air from entraining it.

Unfortunately, we can only hope for the drier air to keep it in check because given the favorable atmospheric environment developing and a fairly well-defined swirl of low pressure embedded in it near 12.5N, 51W, this one must be carefully watched for potential organization as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Tasking a reconaissance plane to possibly investigate the system two days from now, when it is not even being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook, should raise eyebrows in regards to this wave's potential.

[KWT]

Remins me alot of Emily actually which also had unfavorable condtinos to start of with,alot of dry air and also some moderate shear as well from time to time.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


11:30 AM TWO.

Fellow members who live in the Eastern Caribbean Islands let's watch the progress of this wave.

[bvigal]

... Tasking a reconaissance plane to possibly investigate the system two days from now, when it is not even being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook, should raise eyebrows in regards to this wave's potential.

It's got my attention!

[OURAGAN]

this wave is getting better organized by the hour and also shear is decreasing.
May be the first thread for the central lesser antilles this year.
I am leaving in Guadeloupe and i watch this one carefully.

[cycloneye]

Floater 2 is now focused on the wave.

[gatorcane]

What's the suspicious area ENE of it? It's maintained convection very nicely.

[cycloneye]

What's the suspicious area ENE of it? It's maintained convection very nicely.

What you see down near Trinidad is not the wave NHC is watching but the area NE of that around 52w.

[WxGuy1]

What's the suspicious area ENE of it? It's maintained convection very nicely.

That's the area that everyone is talking about. The convection over the southern islands is associated with an upper low.