Long range runs of Global Models,Gamma in Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

Soon the 12z run of the global models will be out so let's see what they have.

[jusforsean]

ok i have posted before and everyone helped me find the links i was looking for but heres my question at hand:
I can get to the global models like gfs ukmed etc....
now when you want to pull one up you have to choose from the drop down menus..Model Initial Time Field Hour

well i know how to choose the number of hours out but on the left theres a box inital time to choose a system like 93i ect.... in a case like this there is no named invest or system to choose so what do i do? thanks for your help

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is starting to come out.Above is at 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 84 hours.

[cycloneye]

ok i have posted before and everyone helped me find the links i was looking for but heres my question at hand:
I can get to the global models like gfs ukmed etc....
now when you want to pull one up you have to choose from the drop down menus..Model Initial Time Field Hour

well i know how to choose the number of hours out but on the left theres a box inital time to choose a system like 93i ect.... in a case like this there is no named invest or system to choose so what do i do? thanks for your help

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

Above is where the runs of the GFS model comes out.It has the four times per day the runs come out.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 108 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

HEY LUIS ... I DON'T LIKE THE LOOKS OF THAT

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS at 138 hours.

Apart from the caribbean it shows a weak low in the Atlantic well NE of the Leewards.

[SouthFloridawx]

cmc MODEL

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

[SouthFloridawx]

This is what the GFS is picking up on

[cycloneye]

GFS at 168 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS picking up on it also

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 228 hours.

So far development of that low into a strong system does not show up but let's see later on.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 336 hours.

At very long range the location shifts in terms of development when you look at the eastcentral atlantic.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 252 hours.

Shows two lows one in the caribean and one east of Florida but of course it's very early to say right now what will occur in a week or two as in this time of the year many variables can change what may occur if anything.

[TS Zack]

Perfect timing for a strong Longwave Trough to dig into the Central CONUS and keep this thing far away from the US. Although, this could be a major problem for the islands.

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC 00Z run T=144HR





UKMET 00Z RUN T=144HR



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[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET IN ON IT ALSO

00Z T=144

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 15.0N 66.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.11.2005 15.0N 66.3W WEAK

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.5N 70.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.11.2005 15.0N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.11.2005 15.0N 71.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.11.2005 15.3N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.11.2005 15.5N 75.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 15.9N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00z UKMET in the text version.