TD/TS Gamma Recon Discussion

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#101 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:39 pm

Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#102 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What is this about .7? Never heard of it...Its almost always .8/.9.


Actually... thanks for bringing that up, Matt. I was wrong in my numbers earlier. (That's what I get for being in a hurry and thinking off the top of my head. :wink:)

Stacy Stewart wrote:we use the same recon-to-surface wind conversion
values of 90% at 9,000-10,000 ft, 80% at 1500 ft and 5,000 ft, and 75%
at 2500 ft
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#103 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:43 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#104 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:46 pm

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#105 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:47 pm

And right now that's a BIG assumption!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:48 pm

BINGO Destruction5 they can find 50-60kt winds but if they can't close a circulation then nada.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#107 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:48 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...


Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#108 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...


Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...


Minute differences...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#109 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:50 pm

All I can say is thanks to God for having such cool air down so far this time of year. ( For Florida, that is!). This scenario might be totally different if it was warmer and no cold front.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#110 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:54 pm

Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#111 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


Man they need to Sh1it or get off the pot...LOL...Driving me crazy..
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#112 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


No.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#113 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:57 pm

TENSE MOMENTS!!! :wall: :think:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#114 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:59 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


No.


Should have been one this morning...That quickstat nailed the LLC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#115 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:02 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...


lol, you even told me from 300m it would be 70% the other night. :wink: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#116 Postby superfly » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:02 pm

still no west winds = storm cancel
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#117 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:10 pm

superfly wrote:still no west winds = storm cancel


Yep...
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#118 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:19 pm

All they seem to have found are south westerly winds looking at the mini obs. Surely they need to find easterly rather than westerly ones for there to be a closed circulation??
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#119 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:23 pm

P.K. wrote:All they seem to have found are south westerly winds looking at the mini obs. Surely they need to find easterly rather than westerly ones for there to be a closed circulation??


They need to find west winds... all tropical waves have east winds. :wink:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#120 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:26 pm

Friggin gas must be getting low...Been in the air 6 hrs..
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane and 41 guests