TD/TS Gamma Recon Discussion

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HURAKAN
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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:39 pm

Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.
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#102 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What is this about .7? Never heard of it...Its almost always .8/.9.


Actually... thanks for bringing that up, Matt. I was wrong in my numbers earlier. (That's what I get for being in a hurry and thinking off the top of my head. :wink:)

Stacy Stewart wrote:we use the same recon-to-surface wind conversion
values of 90% at 9,000-10,000 ft, 80% at 1500 ft and 5,000 ft, and 75%
at 2500 ft
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#103 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:43 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT
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#104 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:46 pm

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...
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#105 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:47 pm

And right now that's a BIG assumption!
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#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:48 pm

BINGO Destruction5 they can find 50-60kt winds but if they can't close a circulation then nada.
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#107 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:48 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...


Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...
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#108 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?


49 knots at Fly level

49 x .70 = 34.3 knots, tropical storm.


Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT


Thats a 45 MPH TS assuming they find a Circulation...


Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...


Minute differences...
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#109 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:50 pm

All I can say is thanks to God for having such cool air down so far this time of year. ( For Florida, that is!). This scenario might be totally different if it was warmer and no cold front.
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#110 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:54 pm

Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?
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#111 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


Man they need to Sh1it or get off the pot...LOL...Driving me crazy..
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#112 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


No.
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#113 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:57 pm

TENSE MOMENTS!!! :wall: :think:
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#114 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:59 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Plane crossing center.Will they find it closed and release a vortex message?


No.


Should have been one this morning...That quickstat nailed the LLC
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#115 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:02 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...


lol, you even told me from 300m it would be 70% the other night. :wink: :lol:
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#116 Postby superfly » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:02 pm

still no west winds = storm cancel
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#117 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:10 pm

superfly wrote:still no west winds = storm cancel


Yep...
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#118 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:19 pm

All they seem to have found are south westerly winds looking at the mini obs. Surely they need to find easterly rather than westerly ones for there to be a closed circulation??
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#119 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:23 pm

P.K. wrote:All they seem to have found are south westerly winds looking at the mini obs. Surely they need to find easterly rather than westerly ones for there to be a closed circulation??


They need to find west winds... all tropical waves have east winds. :wink:
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#120 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:26 pm

Friggin gas must be getting low...Been in the air 6 hrs..
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