Blob at caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Blob at caribbean

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 9:17 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

That area is part of a surface trough that has lingered for days now but upper conditions dont favor cyclogeneresis but something to watch as we come to the start of the season on sunday.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon May 26, 2003 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 9:20 am

It is interesting..this area continues to persist and if it hangs out..we may see something?? We will see in the coming days :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#3 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 10:03 am

What does the shear look like in this area of convection in the coming days?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#4 Postby southerngale » Mon May 26, 2003 10:12 am

Here's a shear map Garrett.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

Does look interesting

#5 Postby jabber » Mon May 26, 2003 10:14 am

I was looking at the blob last night and it was the first time I saw very cold tops (black) for a while. Its currently in 40 - 50 knot shear, moving into 20 knot. Do not think anything will come of it, but interesting to watch. PS.. non on the models hint at anything that I can tell.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 10:49 am

Yes shear is too strong for anything to get going there.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
chadtm80

#7 Postby chadtm80 » Mon May 26, 2003 10:50 am

Were getting closer though guys
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 10:52 am

Looks pretty impressive today!!! If the conditions becomes more favorable we may see something happen? :roll: You never know!!! :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#9 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 11:23 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#10 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 11:23 am

Thanks for posting the info. What is the right shear level for tropical systems to develop? Is it less than 10?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 11:24 am

Yes Garrett 10 or less is the ideal.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#12 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 11:27 am

Okay... that is what I thought. Thanks for reaffirming that though Luis! :)
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 11:30 am

I wasn't saying anything will form..but if it persists in that area until the shear lessens it will be something to watch!! :wink: That was my point! :D
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#14 Postby chadtm80 » Mon May 26, 2003 1:22 pm

and I agree rain

Image
Last edited by chadtm80 on Mon May 26, 2003 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#15 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 2:15 pm

Thanks Chad!!! :wink: It is one of the top areas to watch IMHO :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#16 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 2:24 pm

If there was something it would have a window to develop!!Image[/img]
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon May 26, 2003 2:55 pm

Not sure at all what that version of GFS is picking up on, but it sure is not the actual atmosphere as conditions are initialized too favorable in the model; thus, it is incredibly unlikely that conditions will ever become that favorable
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#18 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 3:10 pm

Thanks for the information.. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#19 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 3:20 pm

It's not looking too good anymore on the latest pics..Derek thanks for the info..I am still learning and I will eventually learn which models provide an accurate perspective of tropical conditions. Again thanks for the experience and correction :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 27, 2003 7:04 am

The blob is still there as convection is comming and going in the western caribbean and shear is not so strong now but still too hostile.

Will this area has a chance to develop? well I think that it is a long shot but never say never and we will be watching as the hurricane season starts on sunday.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests