Blob at caribbean

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cycloneye
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Blob at caribbean

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 9:17 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

That area is part of a surface trough that has lingered for days now but upper conditions dont favor cyclogeneresis but something to watch as we come to the start of the season on sunday.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon May 26, 2003 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 9:20 am

It is interesting..this area continues to persist and if it hangs out..we may see something?? We will see in the coming days :wink:
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#3 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 10:03 am

What does the shear look like in this area of convection in the coming days?
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#4 Postby southerngale » Mon May 26, 2003 10:12 am

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Does look interesting

#5 Postby jabber » Mon May 26, 2003 10:14 am

I was looking at the blob last night and it was the first time I saw very cold tops (black) for a while. Its currently in 40 - 50 knot shear, moving into 20 knot. Do not think anything will come of it, but interesting to watch. PS.. non on the models hint at anything that I can tell.

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#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 10:49 am

Yes shear is too strong for anything to get going there.
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chadtm80

#7 Postby chadtm80 » Mon May 26, 2003 10:50 am

Were getting closer though guys
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 10:52 am

Looks pretty impressive today!!! If the conditions becomes more favorable we may see something happen? :roll: You never know!!! :wink:
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Rainband

#9 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 11:23 am

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#10 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 11:23 am

Thanks for posting the info. What is the right shear level for tropical systems to develop? Is it less than 10?
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 11:24 am

Yes Garrett 10 or less is the ideal.
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#12 Postby wx247 » Mon May 26, 2003 11:27 am

Okay... that is what I thought. Thanks for reaffirming that though Luis! :)
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Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 11:30 am

I wasn't saying anything will form..but if it persists in that area until the shear lessens it will be something to watch!! :wink: That was my point! :D
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chadtm80

#14 Postby chadtm80 » Mon May 26, 2003 1:22 pm

and I agree rain

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Last edited by chadtm80 on Mon May 26, 2003 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rainband

#15 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 2:15 pm

Thanks Chad!!! :wink: It is one of the top areas to watch IMHO :wink:
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Rainband

#16 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 2:24 pm

If there was something it would have a window to develop!!Image[/img]
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Derek Ortt

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon May 26, 2003 2:55 pm

Not sure at all what that version of GFS is picking up on, but it sure is not the actual atmosphere as conditions are initialized too favorable in the model; thus, it is incredibly unlikely that conditions will ever become that favorable
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Rainband

#18 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 3:10 pm

Thanks for the information.. :wink:
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Rainband

#19 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 3:20 pm

It's not looking too good anymore on the latest pics..Derek thanks for the info..I am still learning and I will eventually learn which models provide an accurate perspective of tropical conditions. Again thanks for the experience and correction :wink:
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 27, 2003 7:04 am

The blob is still there as convection is comming and going in the western caribbean and shear is not so strong now but still too hostile.

Will this area has a chance to develop? well I think that it is a long shot but never say never and we will be watching as the hurricane season starts on sunday.
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