2005 Atl Reports=Unnamed Subtropical Storm Report Posted

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wxmann_91
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#121 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well over here I can still see the pdf and MSWord links.I want to know about others if they can see the links working or are dead.I want to know if I take down or not the links I have posted.


Here or NHC site? Here the links are dead. NHC links aren't there. Perhaps you need to hit refresh again.
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#122 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:19 pm

Tropical Storm Arlene= http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL012005_Arlene.doc

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL012005_Arlene.pdf


Tropical Storm Bret

Tropical Storm Cindy

Hurricane Dennis= http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL042005_Dennis.doc

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL042005_Dennis.pdf


Hurricane Emily

Tropical Storm Franklin

Tropical Storm Gert= http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL072005_Gert.doc

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072005_Gert.pdf


Tropical Storm Harvey

Hurricane Irene

Tropical Depression Ten

Tropical Storm Jose

Hurricane Katrina= http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL1 ... atrina.doc


Tropical Storm Lee = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL132005_Lee.doc

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL132005_Lee.pdf


Hurricane Maria

Hurricane Nate

Hurricane Ophelia

Hurricane Philippe

Hurricane Rita

Tropical Depression Nineteen

Hurricane Stan

Tropical Storm Tammy

Sub-Tropical Depression Twenty-Two

Hurricane Vince

Hurricane Wilma

Tropical Storm Alpha

Hurricane Beta

Tropical Storm Gamma

Tropical Storm Delta

Hurricane Epsilon= http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL292005_Epsilon.pdf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL2 ... psilon.doc


I took the Katrina report out.Yes now it's dead here.Now the big question is WHAT HAPPENED??
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#123 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:28 pm

Well link is back at NHC so it's back in this thread at the pdf and MSword forms.Maybe it was a glitch or something that they left out and added.It's a very long report so go slowly thru it and any comments that you may have you can replie at this thread.


In fact, the central pressure of 920 mb is now the lowest on record in the Atlantic basin for an intensity of 110 kt, surpassing Hurricane Floyd (1999) that at one point had a central pressure of 930 mb with an intensity of 110 kt.


Above is a part that you may want to comment as another record for the 2005 season was broken.
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#124 Postby caneflyer » Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:reports may come out very quickly as all of the BT's are finished and have been for more than a month. Wilma I am waiting for as the BT data is unclear as to whether it hit as a cat 3 or a 4


If you had attended the NOAA Hurricane Conference at NHC at the beginning of December you would know this to be completely untrue. It was indicated there during the verification presentation that many of the best tracks have not been touched yet by the various Hurricane Specialists.
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#125 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Dec 20, 2005 4:02 pm

trust me on this...

I have seen them and the tracks have been revised. I saw this Katrina track in NOVEMBER, along with Rita, Wilma, Cindy, etc and have been using them for PRELIMINARY research (which I will NOT post here since the official reports are not yet out).

Now, final changes may be made, but most everything was revised as of mid-November
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#126 Postby caneflyer » Tue Dec 20, 2005 4:18 pm

No thanks, I'll trust what the Hurricane Specialists have said directly.

Many tracks have indeed been revised, but many are in essentially the same shape they were in immediately post-storm , or have only partially been examined. (For example, it was stated explicitly that the decision on Emily's maximum intensity (CAT4 vs 5) has not yet been made.) Further, no best tracks are final until the draft report has been written and reviewed by all the Specialists, the Director and Deputy Director.

Yes, best tracks are currently available on the NHC ftp site, but many of them are most certainly not final.
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#127 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Dec 20, 2005 4:57 pm

the last revisions were made as of Nov 18. Yes, I know they are not final, which is why I do not post them here. Last minute changes have been made (such as Gaston last year)

that said, Katrina's was final back in November as no changes were made then.
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#128 Postby caneflyer » Tue Dec 20, 2005 5:09 pm

The data are on a public ftp site, so whether you post them or not here is inconsequential. Anyone who wants to get them can get them.

The November 18th date is simply the date the files were uploaded from the ATCF to the NHC ftp server. You can draw no conclusions about the actual last date of revision by the Hurricane Specialists from the ftp server timestamp, and of course, any changes made after 18 November are not reflected in these particular files.
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Margie

Yes, Katrina report is out!!!!!!

#129 Postby Margie » Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:15 pm

A little over 40 pages.

I can't believe it is the sixth one out...putting everything else aside, and reading it right now.

[some time passes...]

Done.

Hardly any surprises. It is nice they put out something basic now, so everyone could read the important things that were able to be identified conclusively at this point; they can always add some detail later (hopefully more specifics on the surge, after the high water mark analysis is complete).

Highlights:

They put it at high Cat 3 at LA landfall, kept it Cat 3 at MS landfall (105kt);

there WAS a 2nd eyewall developing (I thought so!);

good discussion regarding the windfield / pressure at landfall;

they mention both the Poplarville EOC (117kt) and Pascagoula EOC (108kt) gusts as some of the highest measured gusts (and consider this...both were incomplete because the roof came off in both cases);

NOLA had winds of Cat 1 or 2 strength;

strongest winds were over water to the east;

they danced a bit around the surge, did not have a strong analysis, their final conclusion was a Cat 3 surge enhanced by Cat 4/5 waves that Kat had generated earlier; they mentioned the 55 foot wave height of buoy 42040, south of Dauphin Island (the same buoy that recorded the 50 ft wave height last year with Ivan);

documented that surge went at least six miles inland in many locs, and 12 miles inland along bays and rivers, but flooding was actually much more significant than that along rivers...the Pascagoula River basin was flooded to at least twice that distance inland, right up into George County. There are a couple of websites out there with satellite images, here is one showing the significant flooding right up to the county line (at least 20 miles inland)...bottom two photos...notice how the cities of Pascagoula and Moss Point have essentially become a large island, between flooding of the Pascagoula and Escatawpa Rivers:

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookin ... flood.html

here is the other set of images I was looking for...showing the flooding of rivers well inland in the MS floodplain, and a new inlet off the Pascagoula River; just below these images are ones showing how Katrina completed the destruction of the western end of Dauphin Island that Ivan started last year (and this is at low tide):

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookin ... trina.html

They underemphasized the significance of the surge along the eastern MS coastline. There was Cat 4 surge from almost the western MS border to just east of the Pass, but solid Cat 3 surge all the way into Bayou La Batre AL, with significant surge in all parts of Jackson Cty but especially at the Pascagoula River basin. There was an area of Pascagoula proper that was flooded that was Cat 4 level from the SLOSH runs (at Hwy 90), and other small locations here and there that were Cat 4 level and received flooding, throughout the county.

can't believe they bothered to mention the roofing material that peeled off the Superdome (bfd!...it wasn't even structural damage);

the 90kt gust from Dauphin Island station was omitted, however the USS Alabama 90kt (unofficial) gust and Dauphin Island buoy gust (89kt) were not;

finally, this was the biggest deal for me, two Airborne Doppler radar-derived wind speed cross sections looking towards the east, documenting the difference in the wind gradient between the 28th and the 29th, clearly showed strong winds between 55 and 80 km, and past 90 km, to the east of the center, early morning just before MS landfall, which reaches just about to eastern Biloxi Bay where my brother at the sheriff's substation said they experienced fairly strong winds.
Last edited by Margie on Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:24 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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#130 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:28 pm

Ivan's was 44 pages, though that's probably because it lasted longer, impacted many other places, and it was written by Stewart.
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#131 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:27 pm

125mph at the Louisana landfall and 120 at Mississippi landfall?

I'd question that

I do agree with upping its florida strike to 80
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#132 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:57 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:125mph at the Louisana landfall and 120 at Mississippi landfall?

I'd question that

I do agree with upping its florida strike to 80


Maybe later on they do some reanalysis and upgrade but this report is what we have as official right now.
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#133 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:26 pm

the next one I'm intrested to see is Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Cindy
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#134 Postby MGC » Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:30 pm

Cindy is the reason there is not much wind damage in New Orleans from Katrina. At my Mom's house in NO East several trees were blown down by Cindy. Katrina did the flooding....MGC
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#135 Postby Pearl River » Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:39 pm

Margie said

[q]can't believe they bothered to mention the roofing material that peeled off the Superdome (bfd!...it wasn't even structural damage); [/q]




Margie. You may think the roof of the Superdome is no bfd because there was no structural damage to an all steele bldg, but since there were 25,000 people in the dome at the time, I guess it doesn't need to be mentioned. The material was made to withstand 130 mph winds. That's the problem with people who aren't from here or live here. They are absolutely clueless.
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#136 Postby Margie » Tue Dec 20, 2005 10:44 pm

The material was made to withstand 130 mph winds. That's the problem with people who aren't from here or live here. They are absolutely clueless.

There is no shingle or fabric roof covering that is made to withstand 130mph winds, and there were no winds of that speed in NOLA from Katrina (are you now going to claim that NHC is also clueless?). 75mph can rip off shingles and that is what ripped off the fabric covering on the roof of the Superdome. It was not significant damage. Some rain came in, so people moved to different seats. There was roofing material peeled off of roofs in the entire southern third of MS.

As a matter of fact, I grew up on the MS Gulf Coast, but I wouldn't tout that as a huge factor in giving someone an edge in understanding roofing material.

Attacking other posters by saying they are 'clueless' isn't appropriate, and coupled with your constant complaining doesn't reflect positively on you.

If I disagree with something I back it up with information.
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#137 Postby MGC » Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:16 pm

The top of the Superdome likely experienced strong Cat-2 or weak Cat-3 winds as the top of the stadium approaches 300 feet. I don't recall what the roof of the dome is but its not the cheap fabric like they use up there in MN. Plus, several steel panels were bent back.....MGC
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#138 Postby Pearl River » Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:45 pm

The Superdome roof was made of a polyurethane foam material, not shingles or fabric.

To everyone I apologize for being a complainer. I have let my emotions get the best of me. I just have problems with people who have no idea of the situation down here other than pictures seen on tv or the internet. It wasn't just a few feet of roofing material blown off like the roof on someones house.

There are people down here who still have no roof over their heads. Lots of people do not even have temporary fema housing yet. Some are camping on the slabs of what is left of their houses in 30 degree weather and there are no shelters available to them. I don't care if Katrina was a cat 5 or cat 3. All I know is there are several hundred thousand people without homes here on the gulf coast and it's taking A TOLL ON EVERYONE.
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#139 Postby Margie » Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:56 pm

MGC wrote:the roof of the dome is but its not the cheap fabric like they use up there in MN.


Oh you mean like the fabric roof of the 25-year-old Metrodome, which has survived numerous derechos with straight-line winds equivalent to Cat 1 and Cat 2 with nary a scratch?
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#140 Postby Pearl River » Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:21 am

Margie said:
Oh you mean like the fabric roof of the 25-year-old Metrodome, which has survived numerous derechos with straight-line winds equivalent to Cat 1 and Cat 2 with nary a scratch?



November 19, 1981 Metrodome roof deflated because of a tear caused by heavy snow.

December 30, 1982 Metrodome roof deflated because of a tear caused by heavy snow.

April 14, 1982 Metrodome roof deflated because of a tear caused by heavy snow and the scheduled Twin's game with California was postponed. It is the only postponement in Metrodome history.

April 26, 1986 Metrodome roof suffered slight tear because of high winds, causing a nine-minute delay in the bottom of the seventh inning vs. California.

These were just some article headlines taken from a MSP newspaper.[/quote]
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