The CPC has now gone gung-ho on the cold in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
The text version. Looks like Mid-February will be very interesting in the southern plains.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 07 - 11 2006 INSPECTION OF TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEEPENING TROUGH (ANTICIPATED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS) OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS COMING TO FRUITION. THERE ARE VARIATIONS AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAVING THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FURTHEST WEST OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, MOST HEIGHT GUIDANCE HAS IT WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF COULD BE CORRECT, IT IS GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TENDS TO OVERDO THE AMPLITUDE OF WEST COAST RIDGES, AND THEREFORE AFFECTS THE POSITIONS OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE, THE LARGE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER OVER ALASKA RECENTLY IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP FOR THE 49TH STATE. NEARLY ALL MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS, IN ADDITION TO AN UNDERCUTTING EAST ASIAN JET OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN CONUS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CANADA - GREENLAND - AND THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS IN EXCESS OF +150 METERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, NORTHERN HUDSON BAY, AND ALSO OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. A FINAL FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE SPLIT FLOW INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE CHANGES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN ARE APPARENTLY COMING INTO PLACE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL...AND THE UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE GFS STORM TRACKS INITIALIZED AT 06 UTC. CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2006: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE CONSISTENT INDICATIONS THAT THE LARGE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ALEUTIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THIS FEATURE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A LARGE NEGATIVE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES, CLEARLY ILLUSTRATES THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN. IN ADDITION, PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE AO AND NAO PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IMPLIES THE GENERATION OF COLDER AIR MASSES AT HIGH LATITUDES AND INCREASED STORMINESS OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS WE ENTER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND STABLE REGIME.