Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cctxhurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

#461 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:56 pm

Portastorm wrote::grrr: :lol:

(Portastorm is wringing his hands gleefully, seeing that the esteemed Air Force Met is on board)


She's teeing it up for you!
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#462 Postby southerngale » Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:57 pm

Air Force Met wrote:The football can be kicked. If the amplification of the pattern does NOT take place...this will go down as one of the largest model busts in history. The GFS is now on 13 runs in a row calling for this pattern at the same time (the start on the 6th/7th and the major by the 11th), the canadian is on board...big time...almost matching the GFS...the JMA is right on track with a big 1048mb high along the leeside of the Canadian Rockies in 192 hours...and a big ridge over wester Canada...and even the Nogaps see the pattern swing...as does the Euro.


Image


Great post, AFM.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

#463 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:58 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Portastorm wrote::grrr: :lol:

(Portastorm is wringing his hands gleefully, seeing that the esteemed Air Force Met is on board)


She's teeing it up for you!
Image


LOL!!! :lol:

Great one, CC ... great one ... yeah, I don't know about the rest of you, but ol' Charlie Brown here has started running toward the football. God help me if Lucy pulls it again.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#464 Postby southerngale » Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:59 pm

LOL cctxhurricanewatcher - I think we were thinking the same thing. I actually had that exact pic on here and then decided to go with one where it does get kicked.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#465 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:01 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Do you think southern Florida will get some fairly cool and dry air from these pattern changes, Air Force Met?


Yes...it will work it's way down there.
0 likes   

User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#466 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:03 pm

Thanks for the input AFMet...I like your posts.

The UKMet and GFS 144-hour temp loops are pretty impressive. As that ridge becomes more entrenched over the west coast, the arctic are just keeps on riding the train. I'm optimistic that TX will see the cold air, but I'm really liking the chances of the central Gulf Coast in this.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#467 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:04 pm

very good analysis AFM! It will be weird to have this pattern change after so many warm, humid, spring-like days. I feel like it has been March or April for the last 5 weeks...finally the return to winter is less than a week away. Ahh...Can't wait. AFM...how do you think that this pattern change will compare to the pattern in early December? Do you think that we will be as cold (compared to normals) as we were then? Do you think we will be colder? What is your take on that? Also, do you think that we could possibly see any "extreme" cold (which I consider a high below 32, a low below 20, or a significant winter storm) during this period?
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#468 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:11 pm

If we do end up getting alot of the arctic air down here, it will come as a shock to most people. Everyone around the office keeps saying that we didn't have a winter this year as they are quick to forget the cold temps before Christmas (which seems so long ago now). I would love to have a chilly February around here as once May gets here we're stuck in the heat and humidity for a good 5 months or so.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#469 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:27 pm

I know that most do not fully trust the long-range accuweather forecasts, and I myself do not usually like them, but they are showing a good idea of this cooler pattern evolving. Starting Feb. 8/9th (through at least the 15th) they have every high below 60 degrees and every low below 40 degrees. They also have lots of cloud cover and on the night of the 12th they are forecasting "Rain with freezing rain late" and a low of 32 (windchill of 23). Just thought it was interesting, and the scary thing is that when an arctic outbreak really IS coming...they tend to forecast numbers too high in their extended forecasts. :eek: ALSO: JB still is mentioning a 0 degree low in Chicago, a 10 degree low in NYC and a 26 degree low in Orlando and Brownsville. He also says that this may be the coldest Feb. since 1979 (in the NE) and he says that he wonders what we will all be saying March 1st as we are looking back on the cold that had just occurred. He also says, and I quote, "The big news is that winter is coming with a fury that I still think will be hard for most to believe". And that's for sure. It will be EXTREMELY hard for many to believe. Many in Houston (if they do not follow weather) will not be expecting a return to winter. It will hit them hard.
0 likes   

Tyler

#470 Postby Tyler » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:49 pm

I don't like to hype events like Accuweather, but I do believe that most of the nation, including the Houston area, will be in for a BIG shock this February...
0 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

#471 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:59 pm

The CPC has now gone gung-ho on the cold in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

The text version. Looks like Mid-February will be very interesting in the southern plains.

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 07 - 11 2006 INSPECTION OF TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEEPENING TROUGH (ANTICIPATED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS) OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS COMING TO FRUITION. THERE ARE VARIATIONS AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAVING THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FURTHEST WEST OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, MOST HEIGHT GUIDANCE HAS IT WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF COULD BE CORRECT, IT IS GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TENDS TO OVERDO THE AMPLITUDE OF WEST COAST RIDGES, AND THEREFORE AFFECTS THE POSITIONS OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE, THE LARGE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER OVER ALASKA RECENTLY IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP FOR THE 49TH STATE. NEARLY ALL MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS, IN ADDITION TO AN UNDERCUTTING EAST ASIAN JET OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN CONUS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CANADA - GREENLAND - AND THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS IN EXCESS OF +150 METERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, NORTHERN HUDSON BAY, AND ALSO OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. A FINAL FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE SPLIT FLOW INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE CHANGES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN ARE APPARENTLY COMING INTO PLACE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL...AND THE UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE GFS STORM TRACKS INITIALIZED AT 06 UTC. CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2006: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE CONSISTENT INDICATIONS THAT THE LARGE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ALEUTIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THIS FEATURE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A LARGE NEGATIVE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES, CLEARLY ILLUSTRATES THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN. IN ADDITION, PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE AO AND NAO PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IMPLIES THE GENERATION OF COLDER AIR MASSES AT HIGH LATITUDES AND INCREASED STORMINESS OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS WE ENTER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND STABLE REGIME.
0 likes   

Tyler

#472 Postby Tyler » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:08 pm

Interesting maps. Alaska warms, as all the bitterly cold air that was bottled up there makes its way to the lower 48.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#473 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:12 pm

Yeah. The CPC now has Houston at an over 50% chance of averaging below avg. during days 6-10 and 8-14.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#474 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:57 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yeah. The CPC now has Houston at an over 50% chance of averaging below avg. during days 6-10 and 8-14.


Yep...and they're pretty sure about it too...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND STABLE REGIME.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#475 Postby jasons2k » Wed Feb 01, 2006 7:33 pm

Starting to get a little nervous...I could live without cold.
0 likes   

Tyler

#476 Postby Tyler » Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:07 pm

After having such a warm January, I think some actual cold temperatures would be nice for a change!
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#477 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:22 pm

Well I'm no longer that skeptical, I believe the cold is coming now that everything looks to have jumped on board. The azaleas around here have already started blooming and that normally doesn't happen until March. Time for some cold air! 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#478 Postby ROCK » Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:38 pm

and my pool was heating up....crud..... :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#479 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:44 pm

I did some research and found that Hooks airport has been as cold as 20 degrees in March and in 1932 up to an inch of snow fell in Houston (Mar. 10-11). So to me...winter threats are not over until mid March. I think this Feb. will be overall cold from this weekend (the start of the cool down) through the end of the month. I think the most brutal days come between the 9th and the 25th...and I predict at least one hard freeze in Houston (something we have not seen this winter). I also predict at least one high below 40 (similar to early December when we had a high of 37)...but there is a chance that we may get even colder than that. High below 32? Who knows... very possible. I am also going to throw out the prediction that we see frozen precip. in Houston before February is over. That is based on cold Feb. climatology. February is Houston's biggest month for snowfall and cold Februarys in the past seem to have all featured at least a "close call" with winter weather. Some Feb. winter weather events in Houston iclude:

SNOW

YEAR DATE Inches
1895 February 14-15 20
1958 February 12 Trace
1960 February 12 4.4
1963 February 12 Trace
1964 February 21 Trace
1973 February 9-10 1.4
1973 February 17-18 1.4
1980 February 2 1.4
1981 February 11 Trace
1985 February 1 0.3
1989 February 6 Trace


ICE (Since 1961)

YEAR DATE amount
1965 February 24 Glaze
1973 February 8-9 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
1989 February 4-8 Glaze
1994 February 8-9 Glaze



LOWS 15 OR BELOW DURING FEB.

YEAR MONTH DATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
1895 February 7 11
1895 February 8 10
1895 February 16 13
1899 February 12 6
1899 February 13 6
1899 February 14 10
1933 February 8 13
1933 February 9 15
1951 February 2 15
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#480 Postby boca » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:43 pm

Florida discussions haven't jumped on the cold yet just cooler temps nothing drastic just normal, but I think were too far south to get into the real cold stuff.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 11 guests