SAL in 2006

[Anthonyl]

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArt ... =AHM460178

I am tending believe that with each passing day that the more volatile predictors for the 06 season are becoming more lethal than what was really expected. Case in point is that there has been unseasonal rainfal in the Saharn drylands compared to last year. I remembered reading an article in late October last pertaing to the unseasonal rainfal that was being experienced in that region and yet today as can be read from the captioned url, more trouble.
Guys if this onset of copious rainfall continues it more than likely means minimal negative effects on moisture distribution over the Atlantic from SAL breakouts in the earlier periods of June,July and early August. Positive for earlier cyclogenis and more active cylce for the MDR.

[Derek Ortt]

however, the contrast betwen the rain forecast and the Saharan is what gives rise to the tropical waves in the first place. It helps to set up a large temp gradient between the rain forecast and the desert. if this is mitigated, there may not be waves for the SAL (or lack there of) to destroy

[JonathanBelles]

SAL? and with that rain it will make the dust stick and will not be picke up by hurricanes, therefore not inhibiting growth, right??

[windycity]

saharian air layer, thats sal ,if ya wanted to know, the dry air is not a hurricanes friend. its kinda like criptomite and superman, ( spelling goof )

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think this could be a BAD SIGN, for things to come. Let us hope it turns dry by Spring.

[windycity]

ya. not good, the mets mentioned last fall that all eyes would be on rainfall. it had been very dry over there, hense all the sal last year. By april we should have a better idea how this season is setting up. Seriously, i am nervous.

[Derek Ortt]

There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

[Cookiely]

There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

No Sal last year? Then why were there fifty thousand posts concerning SAL during the past season. All joking aside. If not SAL what was inhibiting the capeverde storms last year? I remember all the images of the dust cloud and thought that was the inhibitor.

[JonathanBelles]

There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

No Sal last year? Then why were there fifty thousand posts concerning SAL during the past season. All joking aside. If not SAL what was inhibiting the capeverde storms last year? I remember all the images of the dust cloud and thought that was the inhibitor.

yea i remeber a dust cloud coming over the atlantic and over florida and we had no sun for almost a day with heavy sand-fog ( thats what my term was for it was)

[windycity]

wow Derek, i thought it was SAL that affected the waves coming off the cape,(like td 10 that became 12 ) Im on this board to learn so i guess i learned something new today!

[JonathanBelles]

wow Derek, i thought it was SAL that affected the waves coming off the cape,(like td 10 that became 12 ) Im on this board to learn so i guess i learned something new today!

actully ur right it does affect cape verde storms

[Wirbelsturm]

There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

The most preposterous statement I've heard this so-called scientist make yet.

[Derek Ortt]

just look at a WV loop from the time, and its clear beyond all doubt that the dry air was not due to SAL.

[Derek Ortt]

For more information regarding African dry air outbreaks, read the paper from Chidong Zhang and Jeremy Pennington from 2003. It goes into detail describing the different sources of dry air outbreaks

[Cookiely]

For more information regarding African dry air outbreaks, read the paper from Chidong Zhang and Jeremy Pennington from 2003. It goes into detail describing the different sources of dry air outbreaks

Thanks Derek.

[windycity]

if Derik says it wasnt Sal , it wasnt Sal. Plain and simple. As a pro met, and the best around, we need his in put, esspeically in 2 months.

[Wirbelsturm]

just look at a WV loop from the time, and its clear beyond all doubt that the dry air was not due to SAL.

OK, I googled you ( ), and you apparently know what you're talking about. Apologies...

[Jim Cantore]

I think this could be a BAD SIGN, for things to come. Let us hope it turns dry by Spring.

if there was a Cape Verde season in 05 who knows how many more there may have been

[SkeetoBite]

Derek Ortt has a high degree of accuracy most of the time. In most cases, I would bank on his best guess long before accepting the "facts" of many others.

Topic specific question for Derek:

Early in the season last year the SAL pushed a Sarahan dust storm over to Miami and the norther carribean. Your comments about the SAL in general make me believe that the SAL went on vacation for the season after this event? I noted that the SAL was completely absent in 2004, resulting in FL getting pummled repeatedly.

Do you think that the combination of current SST anomolies, the forecast La Nina and the potential lack of SAL are the reasons most experts think 2006 could be as bad or worse than 2005?

Thanks much-

Jonathon

[Derek Ortt]

in 2004, there was a fairly strong SAL in June and July, and it tended to leave in August for the rest of the year. The meridional temp gradient may have persisted to allow waves to be strong once they moved off of the coast. 2005 really did not have any SAL; thus, the baroclinicity associated with forming waves was not present, causing them to be weak. The downside about a bunch of weak waves is that they just move due west toward the W Atl and tend to form there where conditions are more favorable (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). It is these close in systems that tend to be the most powerful of all time (Wilma, FL Keys, Rita, Katrina, Camielle, etc)