SAL in 2006

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Anthonyl
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SAL in 2006

#1 Postby Anthonyl » Thu Feb 16, 2006 4:33 pm

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArt ... =AHM460178

I am tending believe that with each passing day that the more volatile predictors for the 06 season are becoming more lethal than what was really expected. Case in point is that there has been unseasonal rainfal in the Saharn drylands compared to last year. I remembered reading an article in late October last pertaing to the unseasonal rainfal that was being experienced in that region and yet today as can be read from the captioned url, more trouble.
Guys if this onset of copious rainfall continues it more than likely means minimal negative effects on moisture distribution over the Atlantic from SAL breakouts in the earlier periods of June,July and early August. Positive for earlier cyclogenis and more active cylce for the MDR.
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Feb 16, 2006 4:38 pm

however, the contrast betwen the rain forecast and the Saharan is what gives rise to the tropical waves in the first place. It helps to set up a large temp gradient between the rain forecast and the desert. if this is mitigated, there may not be waves for the SAL (or lack there of) to destroy
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:11 pm

SAL? and with that rain it will make the dust stick and will not be picke up by hurricanes, therefore not inhibiting growth, right??
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#4 Postby windycity » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:46 pm

saharian air layer, thats sal ,if ya wanted to know, the dry air is not a hurricanes friend. its kinda like criptomite and superman, ( spelling goof )
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#5 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:46 pm

I think this could be a BAD SIGN, for things to come. Let us hope it turns dry by Spring.
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#6 Postby windycity » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:01 pm

ya. not good, the mets mentioned last fall that all eyes would be on rainfall. it had been very dry over there, hense all the sal last year. By april we should have a better idea how this season is setting up. Seriously, i am nervous.
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:36 am

There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity
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#8 Postby Cookiely » Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:16 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

No Sal last year? Then why were there fifty thousand posts concerning SAL during the past season. :lol: All joking aside. If not SAL what was inhibiting the capeverde storms last year? I remember all the images of the dust cloud and thought that was the inhibitor.
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#9 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:43 pm

Cookiely wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity

No Sal last year? Then why were there fifty thousand posts concerning SAL during the past season. :lol: All joking aside. If not SAL what was inhibiting the capeverde storms last year? I remember all the images of the dust cloud and thought that was the inhibitor.


yea i remeber a dust cloud coming over the atlantic and over florida and we had no sun for almost a day with heavy sand-fog ( thats what my term was for it was)
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#10 Postby windycity » Sat Feb 18, 2006 6:34 pm

wow Derek, i thought it was SAL that affected the waves coming off the cape,(like td 10 that became 12 ) Im on this board to learn so i guess i learned something new today!
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#11 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:16 pm

windycity wrote:wow Derek, i thought it was SAL that affected the waves coming off the cape,(like td 10 that became 12 ) Im on this board to learn so i guess i learned something new today!


actully ur right it does affect cape verde storms
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#12 Postby Wirbelsturm » Sat Feb 18, 2006 8:11 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There was NO SAL last year. Dry air in the E Atl is not always from the SAL. It clearly was from the Azores region.

The lack of a SAL may have meant a lack of a meridional temp gradient, which results in less wave activity
The most preposterous statement I've heard this so-called scientist make yet. :roll:
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Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:42 pm

just look at a WV loop from the time, and its clear beyond all doubt that the dry air was not due to SAL.
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:44 pm

For more information regarding African dry air outbreaks, read the paper from Chidong Zhang and Jeremy Pennington from 2003. It goes into detail describing the different sources of dry air outbreaks
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#15 Postby Cookiely » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:29 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:For more information regarding African dry air outbreaks, read the paper from Chidong Zhang and Jeremy Pennington from 2003. It goes into detail describing the different sources of dry air outbreaks

Thanks Derek.
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#16 Postby windycity » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:37 pm

if Derik says it wasnt Sal , it wasnt Sal. Plain and simple. As a pro met, and the best around, we need his in put, esspeically in 2 months.
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#17 Postby Wirbelsturm » Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:10 am

Derek Ortt wrote:just look at a WV loop from the time, and its clear beyond all doubt that the dry air was not due to SAL.
OK, I googled you ( :lol: ), and you apparently know what you're talking about. Apologies...
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Jim Cantore

#18 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:30 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I think this could be a BAD SIGN, for things to come. Let us hope it turns dry by Spring.


if there was a Cape Verde season in 05 who knows how many more there may have been
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#19 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:22 am

Derek Ortt has a high degree of accuracy most of the time. In most cases, I would bank on his best guess long before accepting the "facts" of many others.

Topic specific question for Derek:

Early in the season last year the SAL pushed a Sarahan dust storm over to Miami and the norther carribean. Your comments about the SAL in general make me believe that the SAL went on vacation for the season after this event? I noted that the SAL was completely absent in 2004, resulting in FL getting pummled repeatedly.

Do you think that the combination of current SST anomolies, the forecast La Nina and the potential lack of SAL are the reasons most experts think 2006 could be as bad or worse than 2005?

Thanks much-

Jonathon
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Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:31 am

in 2004, there was a fairly strong SAL in June and July, and it tended to leave in August for the rest of the year. The meridional temp gradient may have persisted to allow waves to be strong once they moved off of the coast. 2005 really did not have any SAL; thus, the baroclinicity associated with forming waves was not present, causing them to be weak. The downside about a bunch of weak waves is that they just move due west toward the W Atl and tend to form there where conditions are more favorable (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). It is these close in systems that tend to be the most powerful of all time (Wilma, FL Keys, Rita, Katrina, Camielle, etc)
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