DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH DAY 5 OR SO REGARDING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES THE TRANSITION TO A MEAN
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
MODELS DEPICT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY (DAY 4) THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...AS HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WITH
AN OPEN GULF FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
SUGGEST A SEVERE EPISODE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS FROM LATE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 5.
THREAT BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR BEYOND DAY 5...WHEN MODELS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT...THOUGH THEY REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A VERY LARGE
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PERHAPS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND REPEATED EPISODES OF
CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLY STRONG FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FROM ROUGHLY THE PLAINS EWD
TO THE APPALACHIANS FOR ADDITIONAL -- BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT --
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/05/2006
