MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281957Z - 282130Z
   
   ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED.  A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...MID-
   LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS HEATED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OFF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.  STRENGTHENING
   CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW ADVECTS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. 
   
   HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHY COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
   FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON...POSSIBLY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS
   RISK WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
   AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING REGION.
   CAPE IS ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 500 J/KG OR SO BY PEAK HEATING...BUT
   VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER
   FLOW STILL SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
   
   30750527 31500522 31850449 31630346 31240286 30580207
   30280107 29720067 28760053

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282326Z - 290130Z
   
   ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG STRONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED BASED ON RELATIVELY SMALL DURATION SEVERE
   THREAT AND LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE.
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FUEL A FEW INTENSE TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY SPREADS SOUTH FROM DUVAL...BROOKS...JIM WELLS...AND SRN
   KLEBERG COUNTIES. WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   CONVECTION IS TOPPED BY 25-30KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS RESULTS
   IN ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR UPDRAFT
   INTENSIFICATION AND MAINTENENCE. SO FAR...STRONGEST STORM APPEARS TO
   HAVE FORMED NEAR OUTFLOW/GULF BREEZE INTERSECTION IN NUECES COUNTY.
   ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND
   WEST. LATEST ANALYSIS OF WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS A GRADUAL SWD DRIFT
   TO THE DEVELOPING MCS AND NAM-WRF SHORT TERM QPF FORECAST SUPPORTS
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN
   ADDITION TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST...A
   COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS
   TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 02Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   25869744 26289893 27839990 28269970 28009913 27529816
   27619719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0901 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...
   
   VALID 290301Z - 290430Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 REMAINS VALID ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
   TX LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND WEST TX
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND ACCENT FOR A
   CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PECOS AND CONCHO RIVER
   VALLEYS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE SERN NM
   BORDER AREA ATTM WAS OCCURRING ALONG A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. OTHER CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS
   WERE OCCURRING NEAR FORT STOCKTON AND AROUND MIDLAND AND THIS
   ACTIVITY WAS PERSISTING WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
   AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
   
   OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR SOME INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
   CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
   RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND MOIST
   UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN MAINTAINING AN MCS. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS
   CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM GRADUALLY
   WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. WHILE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AND
   SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
   GIVEN CURRENT INSTABILITY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN
   STORM INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
   AREA...IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   28220021 29620132 29670277 31810313 33020331 32990014

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291641Z - 291815Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED/LOCALIZED NATURE
   OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY AS
   AIR MASS BEGINS TO WARM WITH INCREASING INSOLATION.  MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY...AS COLD CORE OF
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. IN
   EXIT REGION OF 70 TO 90 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO
   THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   COOLING ALREADY EXTENDS JUST WEST OF THE WASATCH INTO NORTHWEST
   ARIZONA. 
   
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL
   SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  BASED IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...MOSTLY EAST OF
   THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.  THOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
   FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS
   POSSIBLE...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
   
   37811291 38711245 39691192 40561154 40911066 40851013
   40420904 39360900 38460912 37240999 36931216 37171295

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292050Z - 292215Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT.  A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   STRONG HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   EAST OF DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS NEAR SANDERSON/FORT STOCKTON INTO
   AREAS EAST OF WINK AND HOBBS NM.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE
   AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...BUT SUBSTANTIAL REMAINING INHIBITION HAS
   SUPPRESSED INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AND WESTWARD ADVECTION OF 55-60F
   DEW POINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN.
   THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   STORMS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME.  ENHANCED BY
   INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH GRADUAL
   APPROACH OF LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 40-50+ KT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL SEEMS
   LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY OCCUR...POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   29680240 30730258 31480265 32110278 32600296 33570241
   33520165 32990150 32090116 31590108 31030110 30460151
   29950126 29640128

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292201Z - 292330Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
   WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN NEB THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR/NORTH OF DENVER. HIGH
   BASED CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO WEST
   CENTRAL NEB...WITH WELL MIXED/DRY AIRMASS E/NE OF THE SURFACE
   LOW...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT AND MODEST
   MOISTURE INFLUX ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NEB.
   
   ADDITIONAL HEATING/MIXING COUPLED WITH INCREASING BACKGROUND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT VIA ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO
   YIELD EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   MODEST CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE VIA HIGH BASED NATURE OF
   TSTMS/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
   
   40420157 40590321 41450428 42310432 42790247 42470069
   40700049

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE
   INTO WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 300516Z - 300715Z
   
   SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3
   HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN
   OK...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   EVENING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STORM INITIATION IN THE
   30/06-09Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
   OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.  LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS POTENT
   TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NM AND APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA
   ATTM...SUPPORTING MODEL FORECASTS OF STORM INITIATION IN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. 
   
   LATEST VAD/PROFILER DATA ACROSS ERN NM AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TX
   SHOW 55 TO 60 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET VEERING TO WLY AT 60 KT AT
   MID-LEVELS.  GIVEN RESULTING DEGREE OF SHEAR AND STEEP /AROUND 8
   C/KM/ 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...EXPECT STRONG/ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO
   EVOLVE -- ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   35610133 36480095 36979949 36939813 35369667 33519758
   32549987 32930207

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB...WCNTRL KS...NW OK...NE TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 300858Z - 301100Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND WCNTRL
   NEB POSSIBLY INTO NW OK AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. AS THE STORMS MATURE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 10Z ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE HILL CITY KS VICINITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS WRN KS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE
   FALLS/INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN KS INTO WCNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
   HOURS. ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAIN...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXPAND SWD
   INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND NW
   OK.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
   INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
   JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED DUE TO A
   WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE EVIDENT NEAR 850 MB ON THE LMN 06Z
   SOUNDING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   38340097 40640096 41580038 41659893 41319820 39399826
   37089842 36199883 36049957 36040023 36220094

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SERN KS...SW MO...NW AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301307Z - 301500Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SERN KS AND
   NERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WOULD BE LARGE HAIL BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE
   REGION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 15Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN KS. THIS IS LIKELY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAX IDENTIFIED BY THE RUC. AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING
   SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
   SUGGESTS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. AS
   STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO BY LATE THIS
   MORNING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   36189691 36929726 37729743 38599720 38739549 37389431
   35509407 34899471 34689574 34919643 35439670

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...SERN NEB...FAR NE KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301329Z - 301530Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IA AND NWRN MO LATE
   THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND A NEW WW
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL KS
   ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE RUC. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE....SUPPORTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS EAST OF WW 108. ALTHOUGH SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER IN SRN IA AND NWRN MO THAN AREAS FURTHER
   WEST....MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
   THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NEWD. IN ADDITION...THE OMA AND TOP 12Z
   SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS AT MID-LEVELS
   SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH THE
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO MAY HELP STORMS PRODUCE A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   42649600 41349614 39579588 39779342 42739351

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...
   
   VALID 301542Z - 301715Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  AREAS SOUTH OF
   TORNADO WATCH 109 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ALONG
   DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH 70+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  AS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD...ADDITIONAL CELLS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG DRY
   LINE...NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AS IS IT MIGRATES
   NORTHWEST OF DODGE TO NEAR HILL CITY BY AROUND 18Z.  BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG...SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
   CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18-20Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   38480012 39010017 39729918 39749793 38359728 37089741
   36499743 35579785 35029807 34649886 34719951 35259952
   36399930 37139924 37909980

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

VALID 301747Z - 301915Z

CONTINUE WW.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED CONVECTION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE. CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG...AND LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION/
MID-LEVEL COOLING IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE DRY LINE.
DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS ALREADY EAST OF
HILL CITY AND EXPECTED INTO THE GRAND ISLAND NEB AREA BY 19/20Z.

STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT NEAR SURFACE LOW/MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ALL SUGGEST HIGH PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/30/2006

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...
   
   VALID 301747Z - 301915Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   BASED CONVECTION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE.  CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 1500
   J/KG...AND LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION/
   MID-LEVEL COOLING IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE DRY LINE.
    DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS ALREADY EAST OF
   HILL CITY AND EXPECTED INTO THE GRAND ISLAND NEB AREA BY 19/20Z.
   
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET
   STREAK...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND AMBIENT
   VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT NEAR SURFACE LOW/MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION CENTER ALL SUGGEST HIGH PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH
   DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  STRONG
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   40089886 40769853 40579737 39869659 38579680 37999710
   37449755 37689810 38479843 39389890

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 301833Z - 302030Z

BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25
KTS FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING
LOW LCL HEIGHTS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.

18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS EXTENDING
FROM WRN CANADIAN CTY SWD TO NEAR LAWTON. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WERE MOVING NEWD UP TO 30KTS...THE LINE MOTION WAS EWD AROUND 25
KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT INTO THE
OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 1900-2030Z...AND THE PAULS VALLEY/ARDMORE
AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200
J/KG/ COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. RECENT SRM DATA FROM OKC INDICATES THAT STORM
ROTATION WAS INCREASING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND THUS ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STORMS APPROACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RADAR DATA FROM FREDERICK ALONG
WITH SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MESOLOW MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE NEAR LAWTON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN ENHANCED
SVR/TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL OK.

FURTHER EAST OVER SERN OK...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING UNDER
INCREASING WAA PATTERN. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ABOVE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER /COPIOUS CLOUD COVER/. THUS A NEW WW
EAST OF WW 110 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.

..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...
   
   VALID 301833Z - 302030Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25
   KTS FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
   GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING
   LOW LCL HEIGHTS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.
   
   18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS EXTENDING
   FROM WRN CANADIAN CTY SWD TO NEAR LAWTON. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS
   WERE MOVING NEWD UP TO 30KTS...THE LINE MOTION WAS EWD AROUND 25
   KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT INTO THE
   OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 1900-2030Z...AND THE PAULS VALLEY/ARDMORE
   AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200
   J/KG/ COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. RECENT SRM DATA FROM OKC INDICATES THAT STORM
   ROTATION WAS INCREASING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND THUS ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STORMS APPROACH THE
   I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RADAR DATA FROM FREDERICK ALONG
   WITH SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MESOLOW MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG
   THE DRYLINE NEAR LAWTON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN ENHANCED
   SVR/TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL OK.
   
   FURTHER EAST OVER SERN OK...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING UNDER
   INCREASING WAA PATTERN. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   ABOVE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER /COPIOUS CLOUD COVER/. THUS A NEW WW
   EAST OF WW 110 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   35639776 35619815 34489858 34179873 34029779 34069607
   35649529

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA/CNTRL IA...NW/W CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301922Z - 302115Z
   
   ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF WW
   109 BY AROUND 21Z...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
   THEREAFTER ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
   ACCOMPANYING DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...ONGOING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF WW 109...INTO WESTERN IOWA
   AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS 21Z.
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS
   REGION...BUT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60...
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...DESPITE LACK  OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING.
   
   GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...A TORNADO
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.  HOWEVER...A
   BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BEGIN TO UNFOLD...AS A SQUALL
   LINE SOLIDIFIES AHEAD OF SURGING DRY LINE.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE
   ACROSS THE TOPEKA/ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY METRO AREAS BY 31/00Z...AS
   INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /OVER 100 KT EVIDENT IN AMA 18Z RAOB/ NOSES
   NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   42069635 43039594 42829438 41979306 40469248 39119281
   38509317 37949414 38169491 38739519 40319574 40979598

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301936Z - 302130Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS NWRN TX IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS. SLIGHT RISK WILL INCLUDE THE AREA FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
   
   
   RECENT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM SOUTH OF WW 110 /NEAR SPS/ SWWD TO HASKELL COUNTY. 18Z FWD
   SOUNDING INDICATES A PRONOUNCED INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 750
   MB....BASED ON SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER FURTHER
   WEST OVER NWRN TX...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S
   AT 19Z. MODIFYING THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING FOR THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE
   STILL AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING
   COMBINED WITH THE DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. IF TSTMS DO INITIATE...
   MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   34009847 33539884 33069956 32699962 32659793 32749683
   33219679 33919686

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...
   
   VALID 302046Z - 302245Z
   
   CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE ERN OKC METRO AREA MAY POSE A THREAT
   FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WHILE
   CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY REDEVELOPMENT OF SVR CONVECTION
   REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TO THE W-SW OF THE OKC METRO AREA AS
   DESTABILIZATION RE-OCCURS AHEAD OF SLOWLY EWD MOVING DRYLINE. THE
   SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
   GARVIN AND STEPHENS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE
   STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   WEST OF CENTRAL OKC AREA CONVECTION...THE DRYLINE WAS SLOWING MOVING
   EWD ACROSS ERN CADDO AND ERN COMANCHE COUNTIES. BASED ON RECENT SAT
   IMAGERY...SUFFICIENT HEATING TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL TSTM CLUSTER
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS TO
   THE W-SW OF THE OKC METRO AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE TO THIS REDEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF A
   MID LEVEL INVERSION TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET OVER THE
   TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. THE 18Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED THIS MARKED
   INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 500 MB.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH
   CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS IN THE PAULS VALLEY AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY
   BACKED. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
   JUST EAST OF LAWSON TO NEAR DUNCAN/WAURIKA THROUGH 22Z WHERE A
   DRYLINE BULGE WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   35639812 34049817 34069607 35629530

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...SE NEB...NE OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...
   
   VALID 302112Z - 302215Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS NOSED AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE TO THE
   SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA. THIS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES
   ACROSS THE BARTLESVILLE OK/CHANUTE KS AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH
   23Z.  OTHERWISE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN OVERTAKING DRY LINE
   NORTH OF WICHITA INTO THE OMAHA/LINCOLN NEB AREA AS SURFACE LOW
   LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY
   AREA BY 23-00Z.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED
   SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...
   WHICH MAY NOT CLEAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF WW 109 BEFORE 00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
   
   40879766 41039733 41199614 40089511 37369453 36729561
   36559675 36549760 37039787 38049739 39029704 39759715
   39869798 40329844 40649798

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN OK...NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...
   
   VALID 302310Z - 310115Z
   
   SVR STORM WITH STG ROTATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
   WITH THIS STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS
   WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY /FAR SRN PORTION
   OF WW 110/ INTO FAR NCENTRAL TX FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. WITH STORMS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN SVR FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HRS...A NEW WW WILL
   BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL/SERN OK AND NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   AFTER 00Z.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STORM NEAR ADA MOVING EWD
   AROUND 30 KTS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THE
   SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS MCALESTER BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
   DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER CLAY COUNTY. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR NCENTRAL TX OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING /PER 18Z AMA SOUNDING/ SOUTH OF THE MID
   LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 850 MB INFLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN SVR THREAT FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HRS
   BEYOND 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35539481 35739624 35529693 35319687 34409727 34129736
   33639765 33339750 33349706 33299679 33229642 33269604
   33429546 33579512 34149487